Coronavirus in Zimbabwe

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Zimbabwe and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

29Apr 2423Apr 1532May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Zimbabwe of about 1.06% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 66 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Zimbabwe assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

23

-

Apr 16

23

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

24

+1 (+4.35%)

Apr 18

25

+1 (+4.17%)

Apr 19

25

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

25

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

28

+3 (+12%)

Apr 22

28

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

28

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

29

+1 (+3.57%)

Apr 25

29
28 - 30

+0 (+-8.06e-10%)

Apr 26

29
29 - 30

+0 (+1.06%)

Apr 27

30
29 - 30

+0 (+1.06%)

Apr 28

30
29 - 31

+0 (+1.06%)

Apr 29

30
30 - 31

+0 (+1.06%)

Apr 30

31
30 - 31

+0 (+1.06%)

May 1

31
30 - 31

+0 (+1.06%)

May 2

31
31 - 32

+0 (+1.06%)

May 3

32
31 - 32

+0 (+1.06%)

May 4

32
31 - 33

+0 (+1.06%)

Deaths by coronavirus

4Apr 243Apr 1510May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Zimbabwe of about 9.01% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Zimbabwe assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3

-

Apr 16

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

4

+1 (+33.3%)

Apr 23

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

5
4 - 5

+0 (+15.5%)

Apr 26

5
4 - 6

+0 (+9.01%)

Apr 27

5
5 - 6

+0 (+9.01%)

Apr 28

6
5 - 7

+0 (+9.01%)

Apr 29

7
6 - 8

+0 (+9.01%)

Apr 30

7
6 - 8

+0 (+9.01%)

May 1

8
7 - 9

+0 (+9.01%)

May 2

8
7 - 10

+0 (+9.01%)

May 3

9
8 - 11

+0 (+9.01%)

May 4

10
9 - 12

+0 (+9.01%)

What is the mortality rate in Zimbabwe?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

4040000000100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Zimbabwe, approx. 1.02% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 14,400,000 people in Zimbabwe, that corresponds to about 404 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

14%14%14%14%16%16%16%17%17%17%24%24%29%29%31%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Zimbabwe would be approx. 17%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Zimbabwe?

Coronavirus infections

35.3%0%4.35%4.17%0%0%12%0%0%3.57%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Zimbabwe in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%33.3%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Zimbabwe in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Zimbabwe develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Zimbabwe. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (4,330 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,170 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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