Coronavirus in Zambia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Zambia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

84Apr 2448Apr 15147May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Zambia of about 5.9% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 12 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Zambia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

48

-

Apr 16

48

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

52

+4 (+8.33%)

Apr 18

57

+5 (+9.62%)

Apr 19

61

+4 (+7.02%)

Apr 20

65

+4 (+6.56%)

Apr 21

70

+5 (+7.69%)

Apr 22

74

+4 (+5.71%)

Apr 23

76

+2 (+2.7%)

Apr 24

84

+8 (+10.5%)

Apr 25

88
85 - 90

+4 (+4.2%)

Apr 26

93
90 - 96

+5 (+5.9%)

Apr 27

98
95 - 101

+5 (+5.9%)

Apr 28

104
101 - 107

+6 (+5.9%)

Apr 29

110
107 - 114

+6 (+5.9%)

Apr 30

117
113 - 120

+7 (+5.9%)

May 1

123
120 - 127

+7 (+5.9%)

May 2

131
127 - 135

+7 (+5.9%)

May 3

138
134 - 143

+8 (+5.9%)

May 4

147
142 - 151

+8 (+5.9%)

Deaths by coronavirus

3Apr 242Apr 153May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Zambia of about -2.91e-10% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every -,240,000,000,000 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Zambia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

2

-

Apr 16

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

3

+1 (+50%)

Apr 20

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-7.28e-10%)

Apr 26

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 27

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 28

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 29

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

Apr 30

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 1

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 2

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 3

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

May 4

3
3 - 3

+0 (+-2.91e-10%)

What is the mortality rate in Zambia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

5800000100000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Zambia, approx. 1.22% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 17,400,000 people in Zambia, that corresponds to about 580 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

3.6%3.9%4.1%4.3%4.6%4.9%5.3%5.8%6.3%6.3%6.7%6.7%7%7.5%7.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Zambia would be approx. 5.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Zambia?

Coronavirus infections

6.67%0%8.33%9.62%7.02%6.56%7.69%5.71%2.7%10.5%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Zambia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%50%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Zambia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Zambia develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Zambia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,210 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,600 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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