Coronavirus in Venezuela

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Venezuela and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

318Apr 24197Apr 15479May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Venezuela of about 4.14% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 17 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Venezuela assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

197

-

Apr 16

204

+7 (+3.55%)

Apr 17

204

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

227

+23 (+11.3%)

Apr 19

256

+29 (+12.8%)

Apr 20

256

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

285

+29 (+11.3%)

Apr 22

288

+3 (+1.05%)

Apr 23

311

+23 (+7.99%)

Apr 24

318

+7 (+2.25%)

Apr 25

332
323 - 342

+14 (+4.46%)

Apr 26

346
336 - 356

+14 (+4.14%)

Apr 27

360
350 - 370

+14 (+4.14%)

Apr 28

375
365 - 386

+15 (+4.14%)

Apr 29

391
380 - 402

+16 (+4.14%)

Apr 30

407
396 - 418

+16 (+4.14%)

May 1

424
412 - 436

+17 (+4.14%)

May 2

441
429 - 454

+18 (+4.14%)

May 3

459
447 - 472

+18 (+4.14%)

May 4

479
465 - 492

+19 (+4.14%)

Deaths by coronavirus

10Apr 249Apr 1510May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Venezuela assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

9

-

Apr 16

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

10

+1 (+11.1%)

Apr 22

10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

10
10 - 10

+0 (+2.22e-14%)

Apr 26

10
10 - 10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

10
10 - 10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

10
10 - 10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

10
10 - 10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

10
10 - 10

+0 (+0%)

May 1

10
10 - 10

+0 (+0%)

May 2

10
10 - 10

+0 (+0%)

May 3

10
10 - 10

+0 (+0%)

May 4

10
10 - 10

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Venezuela?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

4170000001000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Venezuela, approx. 0.527% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 28,900,000 people in Venezuela, that corresponds to about 417 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

3.1%3.2%3.5%3.5%3.9%3.9%4.4%4.9%4.9%5.1%5.3%5.3%5.5%5.7%5.8%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Venezuela would be approx. 4.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Venezuela?

Coronavirus infections

4.23%3.55%0%11.3%12.8%0%11.3%1.05%7.99%2.25%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Venezuela in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%11.1%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Venezuela in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Venezuela develop?

High standardMedium standard3Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Venezuela. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (8,660 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (4,330 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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