Coronavirus in Uruguay

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Uruguay and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

563Apr 24492Apr 15675May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Uruguay of about 1.8% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 39 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Uruguay assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

492

-

Apr 16

502

+10 (+2.03%)

Apr 17

502

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

508

+6 (+1.2%)

Apr 19

517

+9 (+1.77%)

Apr 20

535

+18 (+3.48%)

Apr 21

535

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

543

+8 (+1.5%)

Apr 23

557

+14 (+2.58%)

Apr 24

563

+6 (+1.08%)

Apr 25

574
571 - 578

+11 (+2.04%)

Apr 26

585
581 - 588

+10 (+1.8%)

Apr 27

595
592 - 599

+11 (+1.8%)

Apr 28

606
602 - 610

+11 (+1.8%)

Apr 29

617
613 - 621

+11 (+1.8%)

Apr 30

628
624 - 632

+11 (+1.8%)

May 1

639
636 - 643

+11 (+1.8%)

May 2

651
647 - 655

+12 (+1.8%)

May 3

663
659 - 667

+12 (+1.8%)

May 4

675
671 - 679

+12 (+1.8%)

Deaths by coronavirus

12Apr 248Apr 1516May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Uruguay of about 2.64% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 27 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Uruguay assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

8

-

Apr 16

9

+1 (+12.5%)

Apr 17

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

10

+1 (+11.1%)

Apr 20

10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

11

+1 (+10%)

Apr 22

12

+1 (+9.09%)

Apr 23

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

13
12 - 13

+0 (+4.45%)

Apr 26

13
12 - 13

+0 (+2.64%)

Apr 27

13
13 - 14

+0 (+2.64%)

Apr 28

14
13 - 14

+0 (+2.64%)

Apr 29

14
13 - 15

+0 (+2.64%)

Apr 30

14
14 - 15

+0 (+2.64%)

May 1

15
14 - 15

+0 (+2.64%)

May 2

15
14 - 16

+0 (+2.64%)

May 3

15
15 - 16

+0 (+2.64%)

May 4

16
15 - 17

+0 (+2.64%)

What is the mortality rate in Uruguay?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

890100101100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Uruguay, approx. 0.94% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 3,450,000 people in Uruguay, that corresponds to about 89 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.1%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.4%2.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Uruguay would be approx. 2.4%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Uruguay?

Coronavirus infections

1.86%2.03%0%1.2%1.77%3.48%0%1.5%2.58%1.08%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Uruguay in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%12.5%0%0%11.1%0%10%9.09%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Uruguay in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Uruguay develop?

High standardMedium standard2Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Uruguay. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,030 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (517 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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