Coronavirus in United Arab Emirates

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in United Arab Emirates and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

9,280Apr 245,370Apr 1516,900May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in United Arab Emirates of about 6.18% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 12 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in United Arab Emirates assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5,370

-

Apr 16

5,830

+460 (+8.57%)

Apr 17

6,300

+477 (+8.19%)

Apr 18

6,300

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

6,780

+479 (+7.6%)

Apr 20

7,270

+484 (+7.14%)

Apr 21

7,760

+490 (+6.74%)

Apr 22

8,240

+483 (+6.23%)

Apr 23

8,760

+518 (+6.29%)

Apr 24

9,280

+525 (+6%)

Apr 25

9,860
9,850 - 9,870

+581 (+6.26%)

Apr 26

10,500
10,500 - 10,500

+610 (+6.18%)

Apr 27

11,100
11,100 - 11,100

+647 (+6.18%)

Apr 28

11,800
11,800 - 11,800

+687 (+6.18%)

Apr 29

12,500
12,500 - 12,600

+730 (+6.18%)

Apr 30

13,300
13,300 - 13,300

+775 (+6.18%)

May 1

14,100
14,100 - 14,200

+823 (+6.18%)

May 2

15,000
15,000 - 15,000

+874 (+6.18%)

May 3

15,900
15,900 - 16,000

+928 (+6.18%)

May 4

16,900
16,900 - 16,900

+985 (+6.18%)

Deaths by coronavirus

64Apr 2433Apr 15184May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in United Arab Emirates of about 11.2% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.5 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in United Arab Emirates assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

33

-

Apr 16

35

+2 (+6.06%)

Apr 17

37

+2 (+5.71%)

Apr 18

37

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

41

+4 (+10.8%)

Apr 20

43

+2 (+4.88%)

Apr 21

46

+3 (+6.98%)

Apr 22

52

+6 (+13%)

Apr 23

56

+4 (+7.69%)

Apr 24

64

+8 (+14.3%)

Apr 25

71
69 - 72

+7 (+10.3%)

Apr 26

79
77 - 81

+8 (+11.2%)

Apr 27

87
85 - 90

+9 (+11.2%)

Apr 28

97
95 - 100

+10 (+11.2%)

Apr 29

108
105 - 111

+11 (+11.2%)

Apr 30

120
117 - 123

+12 (+11.2%)

May 1

134
131 - 137

+14 (+11.2%)

May 2

149
145 - 153

+15 (+11.2%)

May 3

166
161 - 170

+17 (+11.2%)

May 4

184
180 - 189

+19 (+11.2%)

What is the mortality rate in United Arab Emirates?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

535220423648Apr 15Apr 24)}

In United Arab Emirates, approx. 0.199% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 9,630,000 people in United Arab Emirates, that corresponds to about 53 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.69%0.73%0.78%0.83%0.88%0.94%1%1%1.1%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.6%1.7%1.9%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in United Arab Emirates would be approx. 1%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in United Arab Emirates?

Coronavirus infections

8.76%8.57%8.19%0%7.6%7.14%6.74%6.23%6.29%6%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in United Arab Emirates in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

17.9%6.06%5.71%0%10.8%4.88%6.98%13%7.69%14.3%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in United Arab Emirates in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in United Arab Emirates develop?

High standardMedium standard107Apr 251,440Jun 82,890Jun 19

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in United Arab Emirates. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,890 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,440 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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