Coronavirus in Ukraine

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Ukraine and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

8,130Apr 243,760Apr 1520,300May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Ukraine of about 9.77% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.4 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Ukraine assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3,760

-

Apr 16

4,160

+397 (+10.5%)

Apr 17

4,660

+501 (+12%)

Apr 18

5,110

+444 (+9.52%)

Apr 19

5,450

+343 (+6.72%)

Apr 20

5,710

+261 (+4.79%)

Apr 21

6,130

+415 (+7.27%)

Apr 22

6,590

+467 (+7.62%)

Apr 23

7,170

+578 (+8.77%)

Apr 24

8,130

+955 (+13.3%)

Apr 25

8,790
8,560 - 9,030

+666 (+8.19%)

Apr 26

9,650
9,400 - 9,910

+858 (+9.77%)

Apr 27

10,600
10,300 - 10,900

+942 (+9.77%)

Apr 28

11,600
11,300 - 11,900

+1,030 (+9.77%)

Apr 29

12,800
12,400 - 13,100

+1,140 (+9.77%)

Apr 30

14,000
13,600 - 14,400

+1,250 (+9.77%)

May 1

15,400
15,000 - 15,800

+1,370 (+9.77%)

May 2

16,900
16,400 - 17,300

+1,500 (+9.77%)

May 3

18,500
18,000 - 19,000

+1,650 (+9.77%)

May 4

20,300
19,800 - 20,900

+1,810 (+9.77%)

Deaths by coronavirus

201Apr 24108Apr 15421May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Ukraine of about 7.66% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 9.4 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Ukraine assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

108

-

Apr 16

116

+8 (+7.41%)

Apr 17

125

+9 (+7.76%)

Apr 18

133

+8 (+6.4%)

Apr 19

141

+8 (+6.02%)

Apr 20

151

+10 (+7.09%)

Apr 21

161

+10 (+6.62%)

Apr 22

174

+13 (+8.07%)

Apr 23

187

+13 (+7.47%)

Apr 24

201

+14 (+7.49%)

Apr 25

217
216 - 217

+16 (+7.77%)

Apr 26

233
233 - 234

+17 (+7.66%)

Apr 27

251
250 - 252

+18 (+7.66%)

Apr 28

270
269 - 271

+19 (+7.66%)

Apr 29

291
290 - 292

+21 (+7.66%)

Apr 30

313
312 - 314

+22 (+7.66%)

May 1

337
336 - 338

+24 (+7.66%)

May 2

363
362 - 364

+26 (+7.66%)

May 3

391
390 - 392

+28 (+7.66%)

May 4

421
420 - 422

+30 (+7.66%)

What is the mortality rate in Ukraine?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,7601089881010131314Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Ukraine, approx. 1.44% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 44,600,000 people in Ukraine, that corresponds to about 1,760 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.5%2.8%3%3.3%3.5%3.7%3.9%4.3%4.8%5.3%6%6.5%7.2%8%9.1%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Ukraine would be approx. 4.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Ukraine?

Coronavirus infections

11.6%10.5%12%9.52%6.72%4.79%7.27%7.62%8.77%13.3%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Ukraine in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

10.2%7.41%7.76%6.4%6.02%7.09%6.62%8.07%7.47%7.49%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Ukraine in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Ukraine develop?

High standardMedium standard114Apr 256,690Jun 713,400Jun 14

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Ukraine. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (13,400 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (6,690 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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