Coronavirus in Turkey

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Turkey and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

105,000Apr 2469,400Apr 15143,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Turkey of about 3.15% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 22 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Turkey assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

69,400

-

Apr 16

74,200

+4,800 (+6.92%)

Apr 17

78,500

+4,350 (+5.87%)

Apr 18

82,300

+3,780 (+4.82%)

Apr 19

86,300

+3,980 (+4.83%)

Apr 20

91,000

+4,670 (+5.42%)

Apr 21

95,600

+4,610 (+5.07%)

Apr 22

98,700

+3,080 (+3.23%)

Apr 23

102,000

+3,120 (+3.16%)

Apr 24

105,000

+3,120 (+3.07%)

Apr 25

108,000
108,000 - 108,000

+3,350 (+3.19%)

Apr 26

112,000
112,000 - 112,000

+3,410 (+3.15%)

Apr 27

115,000
115,000 - 115,000

+3,520 (+3.15%)

Apr 28

119,000
119,000 - 119,000

+3,630 (+3.15%)

Apr 29

123,000
122,000 - 123,000

+3,740 (+3.15%)

Apr 30

126,000
126,000 - 127,000

+3,860 (+3.15%)

May 1

130,000
130,000 - 131,000

+3,980 (+3.15%)

May 2

135,000
134,000 - 135,000

+4,110 (+3.15%)

May 3

139,000
139,000 - 139,000

+4,240 (+3.15%)

May 4

143,000
143,000 - 143,000

+4,370 (+3.15%)

Deaths by coronavirus

2,600Apr 241,520Apr 154,160May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Turkey of about 4.8% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 15 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Turkey assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,520

-

Apr 16

1,640

+125 (+8.23%)

Apr 17

1,770

+126 (+7.67%)

Apr 18

1,890

+121 (+6.84%)

Apr 19

2,020

+127 (+6.72%)

Apr 20

2,140

+123 (+6.1%)

Apr 21

2,260

+119 (+5.56%)

Apr 22

2,380

+117 (+5.18%)

Apr 23

2,490

+115 (+4.84%)

Apr 24

2,600

+109 (+4.38%)

Apr 25

2,730
2,720 - 2,740

+130 (+5.01%)

Apr 26

2,860
2,850 - 2,870

+131 (+4.8%)

Apr 27

3,000
2,990 - 3,010

+137 (+4.8%)

Apr 28

3,140
3,130 - 3,150

+144 (+4.8%)

Apr 29

3,290
3,280 - 3,310

+151 (+4.8%)

Apr 30

3,450
3,440 - 3,470

+158 (+4.8%)

May 1

3,620
3,600 - 3,630

+166 (+4.8%)

May 2

3,790
3,780 - 3,810

+174 (+4.8%)

May 3

3,970
3,960 - 3,990

+182 (+4.8%)

May 4

4,160
4,150 - 4,180

+191 (+4.8%)

What is the mortality rate in Turkey?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,380115125126121127123119117115109Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Turkey, approx. 0.612% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 82,300,000 people in Turkey, that corresponds to about 1,380 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.5%2.6%2.6%2.7%2.9%3%3.2%3.3%3.5%3.7%4%4.3%4.6%5%5.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Turkey would be approx. 3.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Turkey?

Coronavirus infections

6.57%6.92%5.87%4.82%4.83%5.42%5.07%3.23%3.16%3.07%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Turkey in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

8.2%8.23%7.67%6.84%6.72%6.1%5.56%5.18%4.84%4.38%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Turkey in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Turkey develop?

High standardMedium standard944Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Turkey. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (24,700 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (12,300 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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