Coronavirus in Tunisia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Tunisia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

922Apr 24780Apr 151,060May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Tunisia of about 1.37% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 51 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Tunisia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

780

-

Apr 16

822

+42 (+5.38%)

Apr 17

864

+42 (+5.11%)

Apr 18

864

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

879

+15 (+1.74%)

Apr 20

884

+5 (+0.569%)

Apr 21

884

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

909

+25 (+2.83%)

Apr 23

918

+9 (+0.99%)

Apr 24

922

+4 (+0.436%)

Apr 25

940
928 - 951

+18 (+1.9%)

Apr 26

952
941 - 964

+13 (+1.37%)

Apr 27

965
954 - 977

+13 (+1.37%)

Apr 28

979
967 - 991

+13 (+1.37%)

Apr 29

992
980 - 1,000

+13 (+1.37%)

Apr 30

1,010
994 - 1,020

+14 (+1.37%)

May 1

1,020
1,010 - 1,030

+14 (+1.37%)

May 2

1,030
1,020 - 1,050

+14 (+1.37%)

May 3

1,050
1,040 - 1,060

+14 (+1.37%)

May 4

1,060
1,050 - 1,070

+14 (+1.37%)

Deaths by coronavirus

38Apr 2435Apr 1538May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Tunisia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

35

-

Apr 16

37

+2 (+5.71%)

Apr 17

37

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

37

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

38

+1 (+2.7%)

Apr 20

38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

38
38 - 38

+0 (+-2.22e-14%)

Apr 26

38
38 - 38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

38
38 - 38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

38
38 - 38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

38
38 - 38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

38
38 - 38

+0 (+0%)

May 1

38
38 - 38

+0 (+0%)

May 2

38
38 - 38

+0 (+0%)

May 3

38
38 - 38

+0 (+0%)

May 4

38
38 - 38

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Tunisia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1881200100000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Tunisia, approx. 0.594% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 11,600,000 people in Tunisia, that corresponds to about 188 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4.1%4.1%4.2%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.4%4.4%4.6%4.9%5.1%5.2%5.4%5.5%5.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Tunisia would be approx. 4.4%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Tunisia?

Coronavirus infections

4.42%5.38%5.11%0%1.74%0.569%0%2.83%0.99%0.436%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Tunisia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

2.94%5.71%0%0%2.7%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Tunisia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Tunisia develop?

High standardMedium standard4Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Tunisia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,470 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,730 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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