Coronavirus in Thailand

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Thailand and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

2,910Apr 242,640Apr 153,210May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Thailand of about 1.06% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 66 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Thailand assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

2,640

-

Apr 16

2,670

+29 (+1.1%)

Apr 17

2,700

+28 (+1.05%)

Apr 18

2,730

+33 (+1.22%)

Apr 19

2,770

+32 (+1.17%)

Apr 20

2,790

+27 (+0.976%)

Apr 21

2,810

+19 (+0.681%)

Apr 22

2,830

+15 (+0.534%)

Apr 23

2,840

+13 (+0.46%)

Apr 24

2,910

+68 (+2.4%)

Apr 25

2,920
2,890 - 2,950

+14 (+0.497%)

Apr 26

2,950
2,920 - 2,980

+31 (+1.06%)

Apr 27

2,980
2,950 - 3,010

+31 (+1.06%)

Apr 28

3,020
2,980 - 3,050

+32 (+1.06%)

Apr 29

3,050
3,020 - 3,080

+32 (+1.06%)

Apr 30

3,080
3,050 - 3,110

+32 (+1.06%)

May 1

3,110
3,080 - 3,140

+33 (+1.06%)

May 2

3,140
3,110 - 3,180

+33 (+1.06%)

May 3

3,180
3,150 - 3,210

+33 (+1.06%)

May 4

3,210
3,180 - 3,240

+34 (+1.06%)

Deaths by coronavirus

51Apr 2443Apr 1562May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Thailand of about 2.04% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 34 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Thailand assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

43

-

Apr 16

46

+3 (+6.98%)

Apr 17

47

+1 (+2.17%)

Apr 18

47

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

47

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

47

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

48

+1 (+2.13%)

Apr 22

49

+1 (+2.08%)

Apr 23

50

+1 (+2.04%)

Apr 24

51

+1 (+2%)

Apr 25

52
52 - 52

+1 (+2.06%)

Apr 26

53
53 - 53

+1 (+2.04%)

Apr 27

54
54 - 54

+1 (+2.04%)

Apr 28

55
55 - 55

+1 (+2.04%)

Apr 29

56
56 - 56

+1 (+2.04%)

Apr 30

58
58 - 58

+1 (+2.04%)

May 1

59
59 - 59

+1 (+2.04%)

May 2

60
60 - 60

+1 (+2.04%)

May 3

61
61 - 61

+1 (+2.04%)

May 4

62
62 - 62

+1 (+2.04%)

What is the mortality rate in Thailand?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,4702310001111Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Thailand, approx. 0.772% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 69,400,000 people in Thailand, that corresponds to about 1,470 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%2%2%2%2%2.1%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Thailand would be approx. 1.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Thailand?

Coronavirus infections

1.15%1.1%1.05%1.22%1.17%0.976%0.681%0.534%0.46%2.4%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Thailand in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

4.88%6.98%2.17%0%0%0%2.13%2.08%2.04%2%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Thailand in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Thailand develop?

High standardMedium standard7Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Thailand. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (20,800 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (10,400 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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