Coronavirus in Switzerland

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Switzerland and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

28,700Apr 2426,300Apr 1530,900May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Switzerland of about 0.732% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 95 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Switzerland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

26,300

-

Apr 16

26,700

+396 (+1.5%)

Apr 17

27,100

+346 (+1.29%)

Apr 18

27,400

+326 (+1.2%)

Apr 19

27,700

+336 (+1.23%)

Apr 20

27,900

+204 (+0.735%)

Apr 21

28,100

+119 (+0.426%)

Apr 22

28,300

+205 (+0.73%)

Apr 23

28,500

+228 (+0.807%)

Apr 24

28,700

+181 (+0.635%)

Apr 25

28,900
28,900 - 28,900

+220 (+0.769%)

Apr 26

29,100
29,100 - 29,100

+212 (+0.732%)

Apr 27

29,300
29,300 - 29,300

+213 (+0.732%)

Apr 28

29,500
29,500 - 29,600

+215 (+0.732%)

Apr 29

29,800
29,700 - 29,800

+216 (+0.732%)

Apr 30

30,000
29,900 - 30,000

+218 (+0.732%)

May 1

30,200
30,200 - 30,200

+219 (+0.732%)

May 2

30,400
30,400 - 30,400

+221 (+0.732%)

May 3

30,600
30,600 - 30,700

+223 (+0.732%)

May 4

30,900
30,800 - 30,900

+224 (+0.732%)

Deaths by coronavirus

1,590Apr 241,240Apr 152,030May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Switzerland of about 2.46% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 28 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Switzerland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,240

-

Apr 16

1,280

+42 (+3.39%)

Apr 17

1,330

+46 (+3.59%)

Apr 18

1,370

+41 (+3.09%)

Apr 19

1,390

+25 (+1.83%)

Apr 20

1,430

+36 (+2.58%)

Apr 21

1,480

+49 (+3.43%)

Apr 22

1,510

+31 (+2.1%)

Apr 23

1,550

+40 (+2.65%)

Apr 24

1,590

+40 (+2.58%)

Apr 25

1,630
1,620 - 1,630

+38 (+2.37%)

Apr 26

1,670
1,660 - 1,670

+40 (+2.46%)

Apr 27

1,710
1,700 - 1,710

+41 (+2.46%)

Apr 28

1,750
1,750 - 1,750

+42 (+2.46%)

Apr 29

1,790
1,790 - 1,800

+43 (+2.46%)

Apr 30

1,840
1,830 - 1,840

+44 (+2.46%)

May 1

1,880
1,880 - 1,890

+45 (+2.46%)

May 2

1,930
1,920 - 1,930

+46 (+2.46%)

May 3

1,980
1,970 - 1,980

+48 (+2.46%)

May 4

2,030
2,020 - 2,030

+49 (+2.46%)

What is the mortality rate in Switzerland?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

18965424641253649314040Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Switzerland, approx. 0.81% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 8,520,000 people in Switzerland, that corresponds to about 189 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

5.5%5.6%5.6%5.7%5.7%5.7%5.8%5.9%5.9%6%6.1%6.2%6.3%6.3%6.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Switzerland would be approx. 5.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Switzerland?

Coronavirus infections

1.54%1.5%1.29%1.2%1.23%0.735%0.426%0.73%0.807%0.635%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Switzerland in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

5.54%3.39%3.59%3.09%1.83%2.58%3.43%2.1%2.65%2.58%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Switzerland in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Switzerland develop?

High standardMedium standard64Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Switzerland. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,550 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,280 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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