Coronavirus in Sweden

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Sweden and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

17,600Apr 2411,900Apr 1527,700May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Sweden of about 4.67% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 15 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Sweden assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

11,900

-

Apr 16

12,500

+613 (+5.14%)

Apr 17

13,200

+676 (+5.39%)

Apr 18

13,800

+606 (+4.59%)

Apr 19

14,400

+563 (+4.07%)

Apr 20

14,800

+392 (+2.73%)

Apr 21

15,300

+545 (+3.69%)

Apr 22

16,000

+682 (+4.45%)

Apr 23

16,800

+751 (+4.69%)

Apr 24

17,600

+812 (+4.85%)

Apr 25

18,400
18,300 - 18,400

+803 (+4.57%)

Apr 26

19,200
19,200 - 19,300

+857 (+4.67%)

Apr 27

20,100
20,100 - 20,200

+897 (+4.67%)

Apr 28

21,100
21,000 - 21,100

+939 (+4.67%)

Apr 29

22,000
22,000 - 22,100

+983 (+4.67%)

Apr 30

23,100
23,000 - 23,100

+1,030 (+4.67%)

May 1

24,200
24,100 - 24,200

+1,080 (+4.67%)

May 2

25,300
25,200 - 25,300

+1,130 (+4.67%)

May 3

26,500
26,400 - 26,500

+1,180 (+4.67%)

May 4

27,700
27,600 - 27,700

+1,230 (+4.67%)

Deaths by coronavirus

2,150Apr 241,200Apr 154,090May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sweden of about 6.58% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 11 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sweden assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,200

-

Apr 16

1,330

+130 (+10.8%)

Apr 17

1,400

+67 (+5.03%)

Apr 18

1,510

+111 (+7.93%)

Apr 19

1,540

+29 (+1.92%)

Apr 20

1,580

+40 (+2.6%)

Apr 21

1,770

+185 (+11.7%)

Apr 22

1,940

+172 (+9.75%)

Apr 23

2,020

+84 (+4.34%)

Apr 24

2,150

+131 (+6.48%)

Apr 25

2,300
2,250 - 2,350

+151 (+7.01%)

Apr 26

2,450
2,400 - 2,510

+152 (+6.58%)

Apr 27

2,620
2,560 - 2,670

+161 (+6.58%)

Apr 28

2,790
2,730 - 2,850

+172 (+6.58%)

Apr 29

2,970
2,910 - 3,040

+183 (+6.58%)

Apr 30

3,170
3,100 - 3,240

+195 (+6.58%)

May 1

3,380
3,300 - 3,450

+208 (+6.58%)

May 2

3,600
3,520 - 3,680

+222 (+6.58%)

May 3

3,830
3,750 - 3,920

+237 (+6.58%)

May 4

4,090
4,000 - 4,180

+252 (+6.58%)

What is the mortality rate in Sweden?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

26217013067111294018517284131Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Sweden, approx. 0.94% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 10,200,000 people in Sweden, that corresponds to about 262 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

12%13%13%14%15%15%16%16%17%18%19%20%21%21%22%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Sweden would be approx. 16%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Sweden?

Coronavirus infections

4.21%5.14%5.39%4.59%4.07%2.73%3.69%4.45%4.69%4.85%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Sweden in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

16.5%10.8%5.03%7.93%1.92%2.6%11.7%9.75%4.34%6.48%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sweden in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Sweden develop?

High standardMedium standard148Apr 251,530Jun 143,050Jun 29

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Sweden. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,050 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,530 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy