Coronavirus in Sudan

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Sudan and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

174Apr 2432Apr 151,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Sudan of about 18.2% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 4.1 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Sudan assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

32

-

Apr 16

32

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

33

+1 (+3.13%)

Apr 18

66

+33 (+100%)

Apr 19

66

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

107

+41 (+62.1%)

Apr 21

107

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

140

+33 (+30.8%)

Apr 23

174

+34 (+24.3%)

Apr 24

174

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

222
193 - 255

+48 (+27.5%)

Apr 26

262
228 - 302

+40 (+18.2%)

Apr 27

310
270 - 357

+48 (+18.2%)

Apr 28

367
319 - 422

+57 (+18.2%)

Apr 29

434
377 - 499

+67 (+18.2%)

Apr 30

513
446 - 590

+79 (+18.2%)

May 1

607
528 - 697

+94 (+18.2%)

May 2

717
624 - 825

+111 (+18.2%)

May 3

848
738 - 975

+131 (+18.2%)

May 4

1,000
872 - 1,150

+155 (+18.2%)

Deaths by coronavirus

16Apr 245Apr 1548May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sudan of about 11.3% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.5 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sudan assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5

-

Apr 16

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

6

+1 (+20%)

Apr 18

10

+4 (+66.7%)

Apr 19

10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

12

+2 (+20%)

Apr 21

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

13

+1 (+8.33%)

Apr 23

16

+3 (+23.1%)

Apr 24

16

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

18
17 - 20

+2 (+15.5%)

Apr 26

21
19 - 22

+2 (+11.3%)

Apr 27

23
21 - 25

+2 (+11.3%)

Apr 28

25
23 - 28

+3 (+11.3%)

Apr 29

28
26 - 31

+3 (+11.3%)

Apr 30

32
29 - 34

+3 (+11.3%)

May 1

35
32 - 38

+4 (+11.3%)

May 2

39
36 - 43

+4 (+11.3%)

May 3

44
40 - 47

+4 (+11.3%)

May 4

48
44 - 53

+5 (+11.3%)

What is the mortality rate in Sudan?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

9010014020130Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Sudan, approx. 0.787% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 41,800,000 people in Sudan, that corresponds to about 901 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

9.2%9.2%11%15%15%24%24%48%50%50%50%0 days10 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Sudan would be approx. 48%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Sudan?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%3.13%100%0%62.1%0%30.8%24.3%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Sudan in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%20%66.7%0%20%0%8.33%23.1%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sudan in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Sudan develop?

High standardMedium standard4Apr 256,270Jun 812,500Jun 12

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Sudan. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (12,500 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (6,270 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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