Coronavirus in Sri Lanka

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Sri Lanka and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

420Apr 24238Apr 151,150May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Sri Lanka of about 10.7% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Sri Lanka assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

238

-

Apr 16

238

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

244

+6 (+2.52%)

Apr 18

254

+10 (+4.1%)

Apr 19

271

+17 (+6.69%)

Apr 20

304

+33 (+12.2%)

Apr 21

310

+6 (+1.97%)

Apr 22

330

+20 (+6.45%)

Apr 23

368

+38 (+11.5%)

Apr 24

420

+52 (+14.1%)

Apr 25

458
442 - 474

+38 (+8.95%)

Apr 26

507
489 - 525

+49 (+10.7%)

Apr 27

561
542 - 581

+54 (+10.7%)

Apr 28

621
600 - 644

+60 (+10.7%)

Apr 29

688
664 - 713

+67 (+10.7%)

Apr 30

762
736 - 789

+74 (+10.7%)

May 1

844
815 - 874

+82 (+10.7%)

May 2

935
902 - 968

+91 (+10.7%)

May 3

1,030
999 - 1,070

+100 (+10.7%)

May 4

1,150
1,110 - 1,190

+111 (+10.7%)

Deaths by coronavirus

7Apr 247Apr 157May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sri Lanka assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

7

-

Apr 16

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 26

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

May 1

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

May 2

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

May 3

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

May 4

7
7 - 7

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Sri Lanka?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3600000000000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Sri Lanka, approx. 0.606% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 21,700,000 people in Sri Lanka, that corresponds to about 360 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.3%2.6%2.8%2.9%2.9%2.9%3%3.2%3.3%3.5%3.7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Sri Lanka would be approx. 2.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Sri Lanka?

Coronavirus infections

2.15%0%2.52%4.1%6.69%12.2%1.97%6.45%11.5%14.1%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Sri Lanka in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sri Lanka in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Sri Lanka develop?

High standardMedium standard5Apr 253,250Jun 246,500Jul 1

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Sri Lanka. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (6,500 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,250 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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