Coronavirus in Spain

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Spain and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

220,000Apr 24178,000Apr 15279,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Spain of about 2.46% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 29 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Spain assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

178,000

-

Apr 16

185,000

+7,300 (+4.11%)

Apr 17

191,000

+5,890 (+3.19%)

Apr 18

192,000

+887 (+0.465%)

Apr 19

199,000

+6,950 (+3.62%)

Apr 20

200,000

+1,540 (+0.773%)

Apr 21

204,000

+3,970 (+1.98%)

Apr 22

208,000

+4,210 (+2.06%)

Apr 23

213,000

+4,640 (+2.22%)

Apr 24

220,000

+6,740 (+3.16%)

Apr 25

224,000
223,000 - 226,000

+4,710 (+2.14%)

Apr 26

230,000
229,000 - 231,000

+5,510 (+2.46%)

Apr 27

236,000
234,000 - 237,000

+5,650 (+2.46%)

Apr 28

241,000
240,000 - 243,000

+5,790 (+2.46%)

Apr 29

247,000
246,000 - 249,000

+5,930 (+2.46%)

Apr 30

253,000
252,000 - 255,000

+6,080 (+2.46%)

May 1

260,000
258,000 - 261,000

+6,230 (+2.46%)

May 2

266,000
265,000 - 268,000

+6,380 (+2.46%)

May 3

273,000
271,000 - 274,000

+6,540 (+2.46%)

May 4

279,000
278,000 - 281,000

+6,700 (+2.46%)

Deaths by coronavirus

22,500Apr 2418,700Apr 1527,300May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Spain of about 1.92% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 36 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Spain assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

18,700

-

Apr 16

19,300

+607 (+3.24%)

Apr 17

20,000

+687 (+3.56%)

Apr 18

20,000

+41 (+0.205%)

Apr 19

20,500

+410 (+2.05%)

Apr 20

20,900

+399 (+1.95%)

Apr 21

21,300

+430 (+2.06%)

Apr 22

21,700

+435 (+2.04%)

Apr 23

22,200

+440 (+2.03%)

Apr 24

22,500

+367 (+1.66%)

Apr 25

23,000
22,900 - 23,000

+458 (+2.04%)

Apr 26

23,400
23,400 - 23,500

+441 (+1.92%)

Apr 27

23,900
23,800 - 23,900

+450 (+1.92%)

Apr 28

24,300
24,300 - 24,400

+458 (+1.92%)

Apr 29

24,800
24,700 - 24,900

+467 (+1.92%)

Apr 30

25,300
25,200 - 25,300

+476 (+1.92%)

May 1

25,800
25,700 - 25,800

+485 (+1.92%)

May 2

26,300
26,200 - 26,300

+495 (+1.92%)

May 3

26,800
26,700 - 26,800

+504 (+1.92%)

May 4

27,300
27,200 - 27,300

+514 (+1.92%)

What is the mortality rate in Spain?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,16065260768741410399430435440367Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Spain, approx. 0.91% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 46,700,000 people in Spain, that corresponds to about 1,160 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

10%11%11%11%11%11%12%12%12%13%13%13%14%14%14%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Spain would be approx. 12%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Spain?

Coronavirus infections

2.96%4.11%3.19%0.465%3.62%0.773%1.98%2.06%2.22%3.16%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Spain in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

3.61%3.24%3.56%0.205%2.05%1.95%2.06%2.04%2.03%1.66%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Spain in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Spain develop?

High standardMedium standard1,090Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Spain. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (14,000 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (7,010 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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