Coronavirus in South Korea

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in South Korea and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

10,700Apr 2410,600Apr 1510,800May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in South Korea of about 0.111% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 620 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in South Korea assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

10,600

-

Apr 16

10,600

+22 (+0.208%)

Apr 17

10,600

+22 (+0.207%)

Apr 18

10,700

+18 (+0.169%)

Apr 19

10,700

+8 (+0.0751%)

Apr 20

10,700

+13 (+0.122%)

Apr 21

10,700

+9 (+0.0843%)

Apr 22

10,700

+11 (+0.103%)

Apr 23

10,700

+14 (+0.131%)

Apr 24

10,700

+10 (+0.0934%)

Apr 25

10,700
10,700 - 10,700

+13 (+0.117%)

Apr 26

10,700
10,700 - 10,700

+12 (+0.111%)

Apr 27

10,800
10,800 - 10,800

+12 (+0.111%)

Apr 28

10,800
10,800 - 10,800

+12 (+0.111%)

Apr 29

10,800
10,800 - 10,800

+12 (+0.111%)

Apr 30

10,800
10,800 - 10,800

+12 (+0.111%)

May 1

10,800
10,800 - 10,800

+12 (+0.111%)

May 2

10,800
10,800 - 10,800

+12 (+0.111%)

May 3

10,800
10,800 - 10,800

+12 (+0.111%)

May 4

10,800
10,800 - 10,800

+12 (+0.111%)

Deaths by coronavirus

240Apr 24225Apr 15252May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in South Korea of about 0.462% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 150 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in South Korea assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

225

-

Apr 16

229

+4 (+1.78%)

Apr 17

230

+1 (+0.437%)

Apr 18

232

+2 (+0.87%)

Apr 19

234

+2 (+0.862%)

Apr 20

236

+2 (+0.855%)

Apr 21

237

+1 (+0.424%)

Apr 22

238

+1 (+0.422%)

Apr 23

240

+2 (+0.84%)

Apr 24

240

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

242
241 - 242

+2 (+0.631%)

Apr 26

243
242 - 243

+1 (+0.462%)

Apr 27

244
243 - 245

+1 (+0.462%)

Apr 28

245
244 - 246

+1 (+0.462%)

Apr 29

246
245 - 247

+1 (+0.462%)

Apr 30

247
246 - 248

+1 (+0.462%)

May 1

248
247 - 249

+1 (+0.462%)

May 2

249
249 - 250

+1 (+0.462%)

May 3

251
250 - 251

+1 (+0.462%)

May 4

252
251 - 253

+1 (+0.462%)

What is the mortality rate in South Korea?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

9383412221120Apr 15Apr 24)}

In South Korea, approx. 0.663% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 51,600,000 people in South Korea, that corresponds to about 938 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in South Korea would be approx. 2.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in South Korea?

Coronavirus infections

0.256%0.208%0.207%0.169%0.0751%0.122%0.0843%0.103%0.131%0.0934%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in South Korea in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

1.35%1.78%0.437%0.87%0.862%0.855%0.424%0.422%0.84%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in South Korea in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in South Korea develop?

High standardMedium standard4Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in South Korea. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (15,500 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (7,750 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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