Coronavirus in South Africa

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in South Africa and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

4,220Apr 242,510Apr 158,280May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in South Africa of about 6.99% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 10 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in South Africa assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

2,510

-

Apr 16

2,610

+99 (+3.95%)

Apr 17

2,780

+178 (+6.83%)

Apr 18

3,030

+251 (+9.02%)

Apr 19

3,160

+124 (+4.09%)

Apr 20

3,300

+142 (+4.5%)

Apr 21

3,470

+165 (+5%)

Apr 22

3,640

+170 (+4.91%)

Apr 23

3,950

+318 (+8.75%)

Apr 24

4,220

+267 (+6.75%)

Apr 25

4,510
4,440 - 4,580

+287 (+6.81%)

Apr 26

4,820
4,750 - 4,900

+315 (+6.99%)

Apr 27

5,160
5,080 - 5,240

+337 (+6.99%)

Apr 28

5,520
5,440 - 5,600

+360 (+6.99%)

Apr 29

5,910
5,820 - 5,990

+386 (+6.99%)

Apr 30

6,320
6,220 - 6,410

+412 (+6.99%)

May 1

6,760
6,660 - 6,860

+441 (+6.99%)

May 2

7,230
7,120 - 7,340

+472 (+6.99%)

May 3

7,740
7,620 - 7,850

+505 (+6.99%)

May 4

8,280
8,150 - 8,400

+540 (+6.99%)

Deaths by coronavirus

79Apr 2434Apr 15235May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in South Africa of about 11.3% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.5 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in South Africa assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

34

-

Apr 16

48

+14 (+41.2%)

Apr 17

50

+2 (+4.17%)

Apr 18

52

+2 (+4%)

Apr 19

54

+2 (+3.85%)

Apr 20

58

+4 (+7.41%)

Apr 21

58

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

65

+7 (+12.1%)

Apr 23

75

+10 (+15.4%)

Apr 24

79

+4 (+5.33%)

Apr 25

90
86 - 94

+11 (+13.7%)

Apr 26

100
96 - 104

+10 (+11.3%)

Apr 27

111
107 - 116

+11 (+11.3%)

Apr 28

124
119 - 129

+13 (+11.3%)

Apr 29

138
132 - 144

+14 (+11.3%)

Apr 30

153
147 - 160

+16 (+11.3%)

May 1

171
164 - 178

+17 (+11.3%)

May 2

190
182 - 198

+19 (+11.3%)

May 3

211
203 - 220

+21 (+11.3%)

May 4

235
226 - 245

+24 (+11.3%)

What is the mortality rate in South Africa?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,490714222407104Apr 15Apr 24)}

In South Africa, approx. 0.94% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 57,800,000 people in South Africa, that corresponds to about 1,490 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.9%2%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.8%3%3.2%3.3%3.5%3.6%3.9%3.9%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in South Africa would be approx. 2.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in South Africa?

Coronavirus infections

3.77%3.95%6.83%9.02%4.09%4.5%5%4.91%8.75%6.75%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in South Africa in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

25.9%41.2%4.17%4%3.85%7.41%0%12.1%15.4%5.33%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in South Africa in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in South Africa develop?

High standardMedium standard45Apr 258,670Jul 1017,300Jul 20

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in South Africa. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (17,300 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (8,670 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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