Coronavirus in Somalia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Somalia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

328Apr 2480Apr 15575May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Somalia of about 5.63% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 13 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Somalia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

80

-

Apr 16

80

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

116

+36 (+45%)

Apr 18

135

+19 (+16.4%)

Apr 19

164

+29 (+21.5%)

Apr 20

237

+73 (+44.5%)

Apr 21

286

+49 (+20.7%)

Apr 22

286

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

328

+42 (+14.7%)

Apr 24

328

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

351
330 - 373

+23 (+7.09%)

Apr 26

371
349 - 394

+20 (+5.63%)

Apr 27

392
369 - 417

+21 (+5.63%)

Apr 28

414
389 - 440

+22 (+5.63%)

Apr 29

437
411 - 465

+23 (+5.63%)

Apr 30

462
435 - 491

+25 (+5.63%)

May 1

488
459 - 519

+26 (+5.63%)

May 2

516
485 - 548

+27 (+5.63%)

May 3

545
512 - 579

+29 (+5.63%)

May 4

575
541 - 612

+31 (+5.63%)

Deaths by coronavirus

16Apr 245Apr 15274May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Somalia of about 32% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 2.5 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Somalia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5

-

Apr 16

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

6

+1 (+20%)

Apr 18

7

+1 (+16.7%)

Apr 19

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

8

+1 (+14.3%)

Apr 21

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

16

+8 (+100%)

Apr 24

16

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

23
17 - 31

+7 (+41.4%)

Apr 26

30
22 - 41

+7 (+32%)

Apr 27

39
29 - 54

+10 (+32%)

Apr 28

52
38 - 71

+13 (+32%)

Apr 29

69
50 - 94

+17 (+32%)

Apr 30

91
66 - 123

+22 (+32%)

May 1

119
88 - 163

+29 (+32%)

May 2

158
116 - 215

+38 (+32%)

May 3

208
153 - 284

+50 (+32%)

May 4

274
201 - 374

+66 (+32%)

What is the mortality rate in Somalia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

5393011010080Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Somalia, approx. 1.31% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 15,000,000 people in Somalia, that corresponds to about 539 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4.9%4.9%5.6%5.6%6.8%9.8%12%14%20%20%27%27%0 days11 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Somalia would be approx. 14%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Somalia?

Coronavirus infections

33.3%0%45%16.4%21.5%44.5%20.7%0%14.7%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Somalia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

150%0%20%16.7%0%14.3%0%0%100%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Somalia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Somalia develop?

High standardMedium standard6Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Somalia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (4,500 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,250 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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