Coronavirus in Slovenia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Slovenia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,370Apr 241,250Apr 151,480May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Slovenia of about 0.739% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 94 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Slovenia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,250

-

Apr 16

1,270

+20 (+1.6%)

Apr 17

1,300

+36 (+2.84%)

Apr 18

1,320

+13 (+0.997%)

Apr 19

1,330

+13 (+0.987%)

Apr 20

1,340

+5 (+0.376%)

Apr 21

1,340

+9 (+0.674%)

Apr 22

1,350

+9 (+0.67%)

Apr 23

1,370

+13 (+0.961%)

Apr 24

1,370

+7 (+0.512%)

Apr 25

1,380
1,380 - 1,390

+11 (+0.815%)

Apr 26

1,390
1,390 - 1,400

+10 (+0.739%)

Apr 27

1,400
1,400 - 1,410

+10 (+0.739%)

Apr 28

1,420
1,410 - 1,420

+10 (+0.739%)

Apr 29

1,430
1,420 - 1,430

+10 (+0.739%)

Apr 30

1,440
1,430 - 1,440

+11 (+0.739%)

May 1

1,450
1,440 - 1,450

+11 (+0.739%)

May 2

1,460
1,450 - 1,460

+11 (+0.739%)

May 3

1,470
1,470 - 1,470

+11 (+0.739%)

May 4

1,480
1,480 - 1,480

+11 (+0.739%)

Deaths by coronavirus

80Apr 2461Apr 1590May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Slovenia of about 1.15% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 60 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Slovenia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

61

-

Apr 16

61

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

66

+5 (+8.2%)

Apr 18

70

+4 (+6.06%)

Apr 19

74

+4 (+5.71%)

Apr 20

77

+3 (+4.05%)

Apr 21

77

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

79

+2 (+2.6%)

Apr 23

79

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

80

+1 (+1.27%)

Apr 25

81
80 - 82

+1 (+1.29%)

Apr 26

82
81 - 83

+0 (+1.15%)

Apr 27

83
82 - 84

+0 (+1.15%)

Apr 28

84
83 - 85

+0 (+1.15%)

Apr 29

85
84 - 86

+0 (+1.15%)

Apr 30

86
85 - 87

+0 (+1.15%)

May 1

87
86 - 88

+0 (+1.15%)

May 2

88
87 - 89

+1 (+1.15%)

May 3

89
88 - 90

+1 (+1.15%)

May 4

90
89 - 91

+1 (+1.15%)

What is the mortality rate in Slovenia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

665054430201Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Slovenia, approx. 1.16% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 2,070,000 people in Slovenia, that corresponds to about 66 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

5.8%5.9%5.9%6%6%6%6.1%6.1%6.3%6.4%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.7%6.9%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Slovenia would be approx. 6.1%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Slovenia?

Coronavirus infections

2.3%1.6%2.84%0.997%0.987%0.376%0.674%0.67%0.961%0.512%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Slovenia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

8.93%0%8.2%6.06%5.71%4.05%0%2.6%0%1.27%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Slovenia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Slovenia develop?

High standardMedium standard3Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Slovenia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (620 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (310 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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