Coronavirus in Singapore

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Singapore and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

12,100Apr 243,700Apr 1531,100May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Singapore of about 9.83% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.4 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Singapore assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3,700

-

Apr 16

4,430

+728 (+19.7%)

Apr 17

5,050

+623 (+14.1%)

Apr 18

5,990

+942 (+18.7%)

Apr 19

6,590

+596 (+9.95%)

Apr 20

8,010

+1,430 (+21.6%)

Apr 21

9,130

+1,110 (+13.9%)

Apr 22

10,100

+1,020 (+11.1%)

Apr 23

11,200

+1,040 (+10.2%)

Apr 24

12,100

+897 (+8.02%)

Apr 25

13,400
13,200 - 13,600

+1,290 (+10.7%)

Apr 26

14,700
14,500 - 14,900

+1,310 (+9.83%)

Apr 27

16,100
15,900 - 16,400

+1,440 (+9.83%)

Apr 28

17,700
17,500 - 18,000

+1,580 (+9.83%)

Apr 29

19,400
19,200 - 19,700

+1,740 (+9.83%)

Apr 30

21,400
21,100 - 21,700

+1,910 (+9.83%)

May 1

23,500
23,100 - 23,800

+2,100 (+9.83%)

May 2

25,800
25,400 - 26,100

+2,310 (+9.83%)

May 3

28,300
27,900 - 28,700

+2,530 (+9.83%)

May 4

31,100
30,600 - 31,500

+2,780 (+9.83%)

Deaths by coronavirus

12Apr 2410Apr 1516May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Singapore of about 2.64% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 27 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Singapore assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

10

-

Apr 16

10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

11

+1 (+10%)

Apr 18

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

11

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

12

+1 (+9.09%)

Apr 23

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

12

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

13
12 - 13

+0 (+4.45%)

Apr 26

13
12 - 13

+0 (+2.64%)

Apr 27

13
13 - 14

+0 (+2.64%)

Apr 28

14
13 - 14

+0 (+2.64%)

Apr 29

14
13 - 15

+0 (+2.64%)

Apr 30

14
14 - 15

+0 (+2.64%)

May 1

15
14 - 15

+0 (+2.64%)

May 2

15
14 - 16

+0 (+2.64%)

May 3

15
15 - 16

+0 (+2.64%)

May 4

16
15 - 17

+0 (+2.64%)

What is the mortality rate in Singapore?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

530010000100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Singapore, approx. 0.342% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 5,640,000 people in Singapore, that corresponds to about 53 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.099%0.11%0.12%0.13%0.15%0.18%0.2%0.24%0.27%0.32%0.37%0.41%0.47%0.52%0.57%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Singapore would be approx. 0.24%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Singapore?

Coronavirus infections

13.7%19.7%14.1%18.7%9.95%21.6%13.9%11.1%10.2%8.02%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Singapore in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%10%0%0%0%0%9.09%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Singapore in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Singapore develop?

High standardMedium standard209Apr 25846May 111,690May 18

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Singapore. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,690 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (846 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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