Coronavirus in Sierra Leone

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Sierra Leone and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

82Apr 2413Apr 15368May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Sierra Leone of about 16.6% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 4.5 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Sierra Leone assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

13

-

Apr 16

15

+2 (+15.4%)

Apr 17

26

+11 (+73.3%)

Apr 18

30

+4 (+15.4%)

Apr 19

35

+5 (+16.7%)

Apr 20

43

+8 (+22.9%)

Apr 21

50

+7 (+16.3%)

Apr 22

61

+11 (+22%)

Apr 23

64

+3 (+4.92%)

Apr 24

82

+18 (+28.1%)

Apr 25

93
85 - 101

+11 (+13.1%)

Apr 26

108
100 - 117

+15 (+16.6%)

Apr 27

126
116 - 137

+18 (+16.6%)

Apr 28

147
135 - 159

+21 (+16.6%)

Apr 29

171
158 - 186

+24 (+16.6%)

Apr 30

200
184 - 217

+28 (+16.6%)

May 1

233
214 - 253

+33 (+16.6%)

May 2

271
250 - 294

+39 (+16.6%)

May 3

316
291 - 343

+45 (+16.6%)

May 4

368
339 - 400

+52 (+16.6%)

Deaths by coronavirus

2Apr 240Apr 15

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sierra Leone assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

0

-

Apr 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

1

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

2

+1 (+100%)

What is the mortality rate in Sierra Leone?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2180000000011Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Sierra Leone, approx. 1.04% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 7,650,000 people in Sierra Leone, that corresponds to about 218 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.4%3.1%3.3%4%4.7%5.7%6.7%7.7%13%15%18%20%20%25%25%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Sierra Leone would be approx. 7.7%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Sierra Leone?

Coronavirus infections

18.2%15.4%73.3%15.4%16.7%22.9%16.3%22%4.92%28.1%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Sierra Leone in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%In,fin,ity%100%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Sierra Leone in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Sierra Leone develop?

High standardMedium standard2Apr 251,150Jun 72,300Jun 11

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Sierra Leone. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,300 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,150 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy