Coronavirus in Serbia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Serbia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

6,630Apr 244,870Apr 156,630May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Serbia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

4,870

-

Apr 16

5,320

+445 (+9.13%)

Apr 17

5,690

+372 (+7%)

Apr 18

5,990

+304 (+5.34%)

Apr 19

6,320

+324 (+5.41%)

Apr 20

6,630

+312 (+4.94%)

Apr 21

6,630

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

6,630

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

6,630

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

6,630

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+-6.66e-14%)

Apr 26

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+0%)

May 1

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+0%)

May 2

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+0%)

May 3

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+0%)

May 4

6,630
6,630 - 6,630

+0 (+0%)

Deaths by coronavirus

125Apr 2499Apr 15125May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Serbia of about 1.16e-9% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 60,000,000,000 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Serbia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

99

-

Apr 16

103

+4 (+4.04%)

Apr 17

110

+7 (+6.8%)

Apr 18

117

+7 (+6.36%)

Apr 19

122

+5 (+4.27%)

Apr 20

125

+3 (+2.46%)

Apr 21

125

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

125

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

125

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

125

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

125
125 - 125

+0 (+2.91e-9%)

Apr 26

125
125 - 125

+0 (+1.16e-9%)

Apr 27

125
125 - 125

+0 (+1.16e-9%)

Apr 28

125
125 - 125

+0 (+1.16e-9%)

Apr 29

125
125 - 125

+0 (+1.16e-9%)

Apr 30

125
125 - 125

+0 (+1.16e-9%)

May 1

125
125 - 125

+0 (+1.16e-9%)

May 2

125
125 - 125

+0 (+1.16e-9%)

May 3

125
125 - 125

+0 (+1.16e-9%)

May 4

125
125 - 125

+0 (+1.16e-9%)

What is the mortality rate in Serbia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

2605477530000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Serbia, approx. 1.36% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 6,980,000 people in Serbia, that corresponds to about 260 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%2%2.1%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.1%3.4%3.7%4%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Serbia would be approx. 2.2%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Serbia?

Coronavirus infections

9.14%9.13%7%5.34%5.41%4.94%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Serbia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

5.32%4.04%6.8%6.36%4.27%2.46%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Serbia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Serbia develop?

High standardMedium standard52Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Serbia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,090 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,050 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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