Coronavirus in Senegal

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Senegal and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

545Apr 24314Apr 151,340May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Senegal of about 9.63% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.5 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Senegal assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

314

-

Apr 16

335

+21 (+6.69%)

Apr 17

342

+7 (+2.09%)

Apr 18

350

+8 (+2.34%)

Apr 19

367

+17 (+4.86%)

Apr 20

377

+10 (+2.72%)

Apr 21

412

+35 (+9.28%)

Apr 22

442

+30 (+7.28%)

Apr 23

479

+37 (+8.37%)

Apr 24

545

+66 (+13.8%)

Apr 25

588
570 - 606

+43 (+7.82%)

Apr 26

644
625 - 664

+57 (+9.63%)

Apr 27

706
685 - 728

+62 (+9.63%)

Apr 28

774
751 - 798

+68 (+9.63%)

Apr 29

849
823 - 875

+75 (+9.63%)

Apr 30

931
903 - 960

+82 (+9.63%)

May 1

1,020
990 - 1,050

+90 (+9.63%)

May 2

1,120
1,080 - 1,150

+98 (+9.63%)

May 3

1,230
1,190 - 1,260

+108 (+9.63%)

May 4

1,340
1,300 - 1,390

+118 (+9.63%)

Deaths by coronavirus

7Apr 242Apr 1519May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Senegal of about 10.6% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 6.9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Senegal assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

2

-

Apr 16

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

3

+1 (+50%)

Apr 19

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

5

+2 (+66.7%)

Apr 21

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

6

+1 (+20%)

Apr 23

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

7

+1 (+16.7%)

Apr 25

8
7 - 8

+0 (+9.54%)

Apr 26

8
8 - 9

+0 (+10.6%)

Apr 27

9
9 - 10

+0 (+10.6%)

Apr 28

10
10 - 11

+0 (+10.6%)

Apr 29

11
11 - 12

+1 (+10.6%)

Apr 30

13
12 - 14

+1 (+10.6%)

May 1

14
13 - 15

+1 (+10.6%)

May 2

16
14 - 17

+1 (+10.6%)

May 3

17
16 - 19

+2 (+10.6%)

May 4

19
18 - 21

+2 (+10.6%)

What is the mortality rate in Senegal?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3760001020101Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Senegal, approx. 0.865% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 15,900,000 people in Senegal, that corresponds to about 376 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.3%1.5%1.6%1.7%1.9%1.9%2%2%2.1%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.6%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Senegal would be approx. 2%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Senegal?

Coronavirus infections

5.02%6.69%2.09%2.34%4.86%2.72%9.28%7.28%8.37%13.8%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Senegal in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%50%0%66.7%0%20%0%16.7%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Senegal in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Senegal develop?

High standardMedium standard6Apr 252,380Jun 264,760Jul 3

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Senegal. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (4,760 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,380 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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