Coronavirus in Saudi Arabia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Saudi Arabia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

15,100Apr 245,860Apr 1536,200May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Saudi Arabia of about 9.09% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Saudi Arabia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5,860

-

Apr 16

6,380

+518 (+8.84%)

Apr 17

7,140

+762 (+11.9%)

Apr 18

8,270

+1,130 (+15.8%)

Apr 19

9,360

+1,090 (+13.1%)

Apr 20

10,500

+1,120 (+12%)

Apr 21

11,600

+1,150 (+10.9%)

Apr 22

12,800

+1,140 (+9.81%)

Apr 23

13,900

+1,160 (+9.07%)

Apr 24

15,100

+1,170 (+8.41%)

Apr 25

16,500
16,400 - 16,600

+1,430 (+9.44%)

Apr 26

18,000
17,900 - 18,100

+1,500 (+9.09%)

Apr 27

19,700
19,500 - 19,800

+1,640 (+9.09%)

Apr 28

21,500
21,300 - 21,600

+1,790 (+9.09%)

Apr 29

23,400
23,300 - 23,600

+1,950 (+9.09%)

Apr 30

25,500
25,400 - 25,700

+2,130 (+9.09%)

May 1

27,900
27,700 - 28,000

+2,320 (+9.09%)

May 2

30,400
30,200 - 30,600

+2,530 (+9.09%)

May 3

33,200
32,900 - 33,400

+2,760 (+9.09%)

May 4

36,200
35,900 - 36,400

+3,010 (+9.09%)

Deaths by coronavirus

127Apr 2479Apr 15213May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Saudi Arabia of about 5.32% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 13 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Saudi Arabia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

79

-

Apr 16

83

+4 (+5.06%)

Apr 17

87

+4 (+4.82%)

Apr 18

92

+5 (+5.75%)

Apr 19

97

+5 (+5.43%)

Apr 20

103

+6 (+6.19%)

Apr 21

109

+6 (+5.83%)

Apr 22

114

+5 (+4.59%)

Apr 23

121

+7 (+6.14%)

Apr 24

127

+6 (+4.96%)

Apr 25

134
133 - 135

+7 (+5.36%)

Apr 26

141
140 - 142

+7 (+5.32%)

Apr 27

148
148 - 149

+7 (+5.32%)

Apr 28

156
155 - 157

+8 (+5.32%)

Apr 29

165
164 - 166

+8 (+5.32%)

Apr 30

173
172 - 174

+9 (+5.32%)

May 1

183
181 - 184

+9 (+5.32%)

May 2

192
191 - 193

+10 (+5.32%)

May 3

203
201 - 204

+10 (+5.32%)

May 4

213
212 - 215

+11 (+5.32%)

What is the mortality rate in Saudi Arabia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3076445566576Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Saudi Arabia, approx. 0.332% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 33,700,000 people in Saudi Arabia, that corresponds to about 307 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.84%0.91%0.99%1.1%1.2%1.4%1.5%1.8%2%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.1%3.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Saudi Arabia would be approx. 1.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Saudi Arabia?

Coronavirus infections

9.18%8.84%11.9%15.8%13.1%12%10.9%9.81%9.07%8.41%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Saudi Arabia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

8.22%5.06%4.82%5.75%5.43%6.19%5.83%4.59%6.14%4.96%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Saudi Arabia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Saudi Arabia develop?

High standardMedium standard232Apr 255,050May 3110,100Jun 8

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Saudi Arabia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (10,100 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,050 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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