Coronavirus in San Marino

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in San Marino and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

513Apr 24372Apr 15660May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in San Marino of about 2.54% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 28 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in San Marino assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

372

-

Apr 16

426

+54 (+14.5%)

Apr 17

435

+9 (+2.11%)

Apr 18

455

+20 (+4.6%)

Apr 19

461

+6 (+1.32%)

Apr 20

462

+1 (+0.217%)

Apr 21

476

+14 (+3.03%)

Apr 22

488

+12 (+2.52%)

Apr 23

501

+13 (+2.66%)

Apr 24

513

+12 (+2.4%)

Apr 25

526
526 - 527

+13 (+2.59%)

Apr 26

540
539 - 540

+13 (+2.54%)

Apr 27

553
553 - 554

+14 (+2.54%)

Apr 28

567
567 - 568

+14 (+2.54%)

Apr 29

582
581 - 582

+14 (+2.54%)

Apr 30

597
596 - 597

+15 (+2.54%)

May 1

612
611 - 612

+15 (+2.54%)

May 2

627
627 - 628

+16 (+2.54%)

May 3

643
643 - 644

+16 (+2.54%)

May 4

660
659 - 660

+16 (+2.54%)

Deaths by coronavirus

40Apr 2436Apr 1540May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in San Marino assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

36

-

Apr 16

38

+2 (+5.56%)

Apr 17

39

+1 (+2.63%)

Apr 18

39

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

39

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

39

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

40

+1 (+2.56%)

Apr 22

40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 26

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

May 1

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

May 2

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

May 3

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

May 4

40
40 - 40

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in San Marino?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

00210001000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In San Marino, approx. 0.87% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 33,800 people in San Marino, that corresponds to about 0 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

7.8%8%8.2%8.4%8.7%8.7%8.8%9.2%9.4%11%11%11%11%11%12%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in San Marino would be approx. 9.2%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in San Marino?

Coronavirus infections

0.27%14.5%2.11%4.6%1.32%0.217%3.03%2.52%2.66%2.4%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in San Marino in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%5.56%2.63%0%0%0%2.56%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in San Marino in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in San Marino develop?

High standardMedium standard3Apr 255May 1910Jun 16

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in San Marino. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (10 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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