Coronavirus in Rwanda

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Rwanda and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

176Apr 24136Apr 15276May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Rwanda of about 4.98% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 14 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Rwanda assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

136

-

Apr 16

138

+2 (+1.47%)

Apr 17

143

+5 (+3.62%)

Apr 18

144

+1 (+0.699%)

Apr 19

147

+3 (+2.08%)

Apr 20

147

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

150

+3 (+2.04%)

Apr 22

153

+3 (+2%)

Apr 23

154

+1 (+0.654%)

Apr 24

176

+22 (+14.3%)

Apr 25

178
167 - 190

+2 (+1.32%)

Apr 26

187
175 - 200

+9 (+4.98%)

Apr 27

197
184 - 210

+9 (+4.98%)

Apr 28

206
193 - 220

+10 (+4.98%)

Apr 29

217
203 - 231

+10 (+4.98%)

Apr 30

227
213 - 243

+11 (+4.98%)

May 1

239
224 - 255

+11 (+4.98%)

May 2

251
235 - 267

+12 (+4.98%)

May 3

263
247 - 281

+12 (+4.98%)

May 4

276
259 - 295

+13 (+4.98%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Apr 240Apr 15

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Rwanda assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

0

-

Apr 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Rwanda?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3090000000000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Rwanda, approx. 0.918% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 12,300,000 people in Rwanda, that corresponds to about 309 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Rwanda would be approx. 0%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Rwanda?

Coronavirus infections

1.49%1.47%3.62%0.699%2.08%0%2.04%2%0.654%14.3%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Rwanda in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Rwanda in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Rwanda develop?

High standardMedium standard1Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Rwanda. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,690 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,850 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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