Coronavirus in Russian Federation

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Russian Federation and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

68,600Apr 2424,500Apr 15163,000May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Russian Federation of about 9.06% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Russian Federation assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

24,500

-

Apr 16

27,900

+3,450 (+14.1%)

Apr 17

32,000

+4,070 (+14.6%)

Apr 18

36,800

+4,790 (+14.9%)

Apr 19

42,900

+6,060 (+16.5%)

Apr 20

47,100

+4,270 (+9.96%)

Apr 21

52,800

+5,640 (+12%)

Apr 22

58,000

+5,240 (+9.92%)

Apr 23

62,800

+4,770 (+8.23%)

Apr 24

68,600

+5,850 (+9.32%)

Apr 25

74,800
74,400 - 75,300

+6,230 (+9.07%)

Apr 26

81,600
81,100 - 82,200

+6,780 (+9.06%)

Apr 27

89,000
88,500 - 89,600

+7,400 (+9.06%)

Apr 28

97,100
96,500 - 97,700

+8,070 (+9.06%)

Apr 29

106,000
105,000 - 107,000

+8,800 (+9.06%)

Apr 30

115,000
115,000 - 116,000

+9,600 (+9.06%)

May 1

126,000
125,000 - 127,000

+10,500 (+9.06%)

May 2

137,000
137,000 - 138,000

+11,400 (+9.06%)

May 3

150,000
149,000 - 151,000

+12,400 (+9.06%)

May 4

163,000
162,000 - 164,000

+13,600 (+9.06%)

Deaths by coronavirus

615Apr 24198Apr 151,630May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Russian Federation of about 10.3% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.1 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Russian Federation assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

198

-

Apr 16

232

+34 (+17.2%)

Apr 17

273

+41 (+17.7%)

Apr 18

313

+40 (+14.7%)

Apr 19

361

+48 (+15.3%)

Apr 20

405

+44 (+12.2%)

Apr 21

456

+51 (+12.6%)

Apr 22

513

+57 (+12.5%)

Apr 23

555

+42 (+8.19%)

Apr 24

615

+60 (+10.8%)

Apr 25

678
668 - 689

+63 (+10.3%)

Apr 26

748
736 - 760

+70 (+10.3%)

Apr 27

825
812 - 838

+77 (+10.3%)

Apr 28

909
895 - 924

+85 (+10.3%)

Apr 29

1,000
987 - 1,020

+93 (+10.3%)

Apr 30

1,110
1,090 - 1,120

+103 (+10.3%)

May 1

1,220
1,200 - 1,240

+113 (+10.3%)

May 2

1,340
1,320 - 1,370

+125 (+10.3%)

May 3

1,480
1,460 - 1,510

+138 (+10.3%)

May 4

1,630
1,610 - 1,660

+152 (+10.3%)

What is the mortality rate in Russian Federation?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

5,34028344140484451574260Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Russian Federation, approx. 1.35% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 144,000,000 people in Russian Federation, that corresponds to about 5,340 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.9%0.98%1.1%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.7%1.9%2.2%2.5%2.9%3.4%3.9%4.5%5.2%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Russian Federation would be approx. 1.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Russian Federation?

Coronavirus infections

16.1%14.1%14.6%14.9%16.5%9.96%12%9.92%8.23%9.32%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Russian Federation in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

16.5%17.2%17.7%14.7%15.3%12.2%12.6%12.5%8.19%10.8%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Russian Federation in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Russian Federation develop?

High standardMedium standard1,130Apr 2521,700May 3043,300Jun 7

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Russian Federation. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (43,300 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (21,700 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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