Coronavirus in Romania

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Romania and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

10,400Apr 247,220Apr 1515,600May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Romania of about 4.06% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 17 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Romania assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

7,220

-

Apr 16

7,710

+491 (+6.8%)

Apr 17

8,070

+360 (+4.67%)

Apr 18

8,420

+351 (+4.35%)

Apr 19

8,750

+328 (+3.9%)

Apr 20

8,940

+190 (+2.17%)

Apr 21

9,240

+306 (+3.42%)

Apr 22

9,710

+468 (+5.06%)

Apr 23

10,100

+386 (+3.98%)

Apr 24

10,400

+321 (+3.18%)

Apr 25

10,900
10,800 - 11,000

+471 (+4.52%)

Apr 26

11,300
11,200 - 11,400

+442 (+4.06%)

Apr 27

11,800
11,700 - 11,900

+460 (+4.06%)

Apr 28

12,300
12,200 - 12,400

+479 (+4.06%)

Apr 29

12,800
12,700 - 12,900

+498 (+4.06%)

Apr 30

13,300
13,200 - 13,400

+518 (+4.06%)

May 1

13,800
13,700 - 14,000

+539 (+4.06%)

May 2

14,400
14,300 - 14,500

+561 (+4.06%)

May 3

15,000
14,800 - 15,100

+584 (+4.06%)

May 4

15,600
15,400 - 15,700

+608 (+4.06%)

Deaths by coronavirus

567Apr 24372Apr 15872May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Romania of about 4.38% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 16 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Romania assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

372

-

Apr 16

392

+20 (+5.38%)

Apr 17

411

+19 (+4.85%)

Apr 18

421

+10 (+2.43%)

Apr 19

451

+30 (+7.13%)

Apr 20

478

+27 (+5.99%)

Apr 21

498

+20 (+4.18%)

Apr 22

524

+26 (+5.22%)

Apr 23

545

+21 (+4.01%)

Apr 24

567

+22 (+4.04%)

Apr 25

593
589 - 597

+26 (+4.61%)

Apr 26

619
615 - 623

+26 (+4.38%)

Apr 27

646
642 - 650

+27 (+4.38%)

Apr 28

675
670 - 679

+28 (+4.38%)

Apr 29

704
700 - 708

+30 (+4.38%)

Apr 30

735
730 - 740

+31 (+4.38%)

May 1

767
762 - 772

+32 (+4.38%)

May 2

801
796 - 806

+34 (+4.38%)

May 3

836
831 - 841

+35 (+4.38%)

May 4

872
867 - 878

+37 (+4.38%)

What is the mortality rate in Romania?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

64021201910302720262122Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Romania, approx. 1.2% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 19,500,000 people in Romania, that corresponds to about 640 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

5.4%5.6%5.8%6.1%6.3%6.5%6.7%7%7.4%7.9%8.2%8.5%9%9.5%10%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Romania would be approx. 7%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Romania?

Coronavirus infections

4.9%6.8%4.67%4.35%3.9%2.17%3.42%5.06%3.98%3.18%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Romania in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

5.98%5.38%4.85%2.43%7.13%5.99%4.18%5.22%4.01%4.04%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Romania in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Romania develop?

High standardMedium standard85Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Romania. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,840 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,920 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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