Coronavirus in Reunion

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Reunion and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

47Mar 225Mar 133,400Apr 1

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Reunion of about 50.8% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 1.7 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Reunion assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

5

-

Mar 14

6

+1 (+20%)

Mar 15

7

+1 (+16.7%)

Mar 16

9

+2 (+28.6%)

Mar 17

9

+0 (+0%)

Mar 18

12

+3 (+33.3%)

Mar 19

14

+2 (+16.7%)

Mar 20

28

+14 (+100%)

Mar 21

45

+17 (+60.7%)

Mar 22

47

+2 (+4.44%)

Mar 23

84
61 - 117

+37 (+79.3%)

Mar 24

127
92 - 176

+43 (+50.8%)

Mar 25

192
138 - 266

+65 (+50.8%)

Mar 26

289
208 - 401

+97 (+50.8%)

Mar 27

436
314 - 605

+147 (+50.8%)

Mar 28

657
473 - 912

+221 (+50.8%)

Mar 29

991
714 - 1,380

+334 (+50.8%)

Mar 30

1,490
1,080 - 2,070

+503 (+50.8%)

Mar 31

2,250
1,620 - 3,130

+759 (+50.8%)

Apr 1

3,400
2,450 - 4,720

+1,140 (+50.8%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Mar 220Mar 13

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Reunion assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

0

-

Mar 14

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 15

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 22

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Reunion?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

110000000000Mar 13Mar 22)}

In Reunion, approx. 0.5% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 777,000 people in Reunion, that corresponds to about 11 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days11 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Reunion would be approx. 0%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Reunion?

Coronavirus infections

400%20%16.7%28.6%0%33.3%16.7%100%60.7%4.44%Mar 13Mar 22)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Reunion in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Mar 13Mar 22)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Reunion in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Reunion develop?

High standardMedium standard2Mar 23117Apr 2233Apr 4

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Reunion. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (233 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (117 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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