Coronavirus in Qatar

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Qatar and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

8,530Apr 243,710Apr 1520,600May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Qatar of about 9.22% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Qatar assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3,710

-

Apr 16

4,100

+392 (+10.6%)

Apr 17

4,660

+560 (+13.6%)

Apr 18

5,010

+345 (+7.4%)

Apr 19

5,450

+440 (+8.79%)

Apr 20

6,020

+567 (+10.4%)

Apr 21

6,530

+518 (+8.61%)

Apr 22

7,140

+608 (+9.31%)

Apr 23

7,760

+623 (+8.72%)

Apr 24

8,530

+761 (+9.8%)

Apr 25

9,290
9,260 - 9,330

+769 (+9.02%)

Apr 26

10,200
10,100 - 10,200

+857 (+9.22%)

Apr 27

11,100
11,000 - 11,100

+936 (+9.22%)

Apr 28

12,100
12,100 - 12,200

+1,020 (+9.22%)

Apr 29

13,200
13,200 - 13,300

+1,120 (+9.22%)

Apr 30

14,400
14,400 - 14,500

+1,220 (+9.22%)

May 1

15,800
15,700 - 15,800

+1,330 (+9.22%)

May 2

17,200
17,200 - 17,300

+1,450 (+9.22%)

May 3

18,800
18,700 - 18,900

+1,590 (+9.22%)

May 4

20,600
20,500 - 20,600

+1,740 (+9.22%)

Deaths by coronavirus

10Apr 247Apr 1514May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Qatar of about 3.21% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 22 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Qatar assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

7

-

Apr 16

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

8

+1 (+14.3%)

Apr 19

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

9

+1 (+12.5%)

Apr 21

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

10

+1 (+11.1%)

Apr 23

10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

10

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

11
10 - 11

+0 (+5.41%)

Apr 26

11
10 - 12

+0 (+3.21%)

Apr 27

11
11 - 12

+0 (+3.21%)

Apr 28

12
11 - 12

+0 (+3.21%)

Apr 29

12
11 - 13

+0 (+3.21%)

Apr 30

12
12 - 13

+0 (+3.21%)

May 1

13
12 - 13

+0 (+3.21%)

May 2

13
12 - 14

+0 (+3.21%)

May 3

14
13 - 14

+0 (+3.21%)

May 4

14
13 - 15

+0 (+3.21%)

What is the mortality rate in Qatar?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

120001010100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Qatar, approx. 0.153% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 2,780,000 people in Qatar, that corresponds to about 12 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0.12%0.13%0.14%0.15%0.17%0.18%0.2%0.21%0.24%0.27%0.29%0.31%0.34%0.37%0.4%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Qatar would be approx. 0.21%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Qatar?

Coronavirus infections

8.26%10.6%13.6%7.4%8.79%10.4%8.61%9.31%8.72%9.8%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Qatar in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%14.3%0%12.5%0%11.1%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Qatar in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Qatar develop?

High standardMedium standard121Apr 25417May 8835May 16

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Qatar. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (835 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (417 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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