Coronavirus in Portugal

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Portugal and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

22,800Apr 2418,100Apr 1528,100May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Portugal of about 2.12% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 33 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Portugal assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

18,100

-

Apr 16

18,800

+750 (+4.15%)

Apr 17

19,000

+181 (+0.961%)

Apr 18

19,700

+663 (+3.49%)

Apr 19

20,200

+521 (+2.65%)

Apr 20

20,900

+657 (+3.25%)

Apr 21

21,400

+516 (+2.47%)

Apr 22

22,000

+603 (+2.82%)

Apr 23

22,400

+371 (+1.69%)

Apr 24

22,800

+444 (+1.99%)

Apr 25

23,300
23,200 - 23,400

+514 (+2.25%)

Apr 26

23,800
23,700 - 23,900

+493 (+2.12%)

Apr 27

24,300
24,200 - 24,400

+504 (+2.12%)

Apr 28

24,800
24,700 - 24,900

+514 (+2.12%)

Apr 29

25,300
25,200 - 25,500

+525 (+2.12%)

Apr 30

25,900
25,800 - 26,000

+536 (+2.12%)

May 1

26,400
26,300 - 26,600

+548 (+2.12%)

May 2

27,000
26,900 - 27,100

+559 (+2.12%)

May 3

27,600
27,400 - 27,700

+571 (+2.12%)

May 4

28,100
28,000 - 28,300

+583 (+2.12%)

Deaths by coronavirus

854Apr 24599Apr 151,250May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Portugal of about 3.93% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 18 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Portugal assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

599

-

Apr 16

629

+30 (+5.01%)

Apr 17

657

+28 (+4.45%)

Apr 18

687

+30 (+4.57%)

Apr 19

714

+27 (+3.93%)

Apr 20

735

+21 (+2.94%)

Apr 21

762

+27 (+3.67%)

Apr 22

785

+23 (+3.02%)

Apr 23

820

+35 (+4.46%)

Apr 24

854

+34 (+4.15%)

Apr 25

886
880 - 892

+32 (+3.74%)

Apr 26

921
915 - 927

+35 (+3.93%)

Apr 27

957
951 - 963

+36 (+3.93%)

Apr 28

995
988 - 1,000

+38 (+3.93%)

Apr 29

1,030
1,030 - 1,040

+39 (+3.93%)

Apr 30

1,070
1,070 - 1,080

+41 (+3.93%)

May 1

1,120
1,110 - 1,120

+42 (+3.93%)

May 2

1,160
1,150 - 1,170

+44 (+3.93%)

May 3

1,210
1,200 - 1,210

+46 (+3.93%)

May 4

1,250
1,250 - 1,260

+47 (+3.93%)

What is the mortality rate in Portugal?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

31332302830272127233534Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Portugal, approx. 1.11% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 10,300,000 people in Portugal, that corresponds to about 313 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

3.7%3.8%3.9%4%4.1%4.2%4.3%4.5%4.5%4.7%4.9%5%5.1%5.3%5.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Portugal would be approx. 4.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Portugal?

Coronavirus infections

3.69%4.15%0.961%3.49%2.65%3.25%2.47%2.82%1.69%1.99%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Portugal in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

5.64%5.01%4.45%4.57%3.93%2.94%3.67%3.02%4.46%4.15%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Portugal in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Portugal develop?

High standardMedium standard128Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Portugal. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,080 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,540 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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