Coronavirus in Poland

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Poland and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

10,900Apr 247,580Apr 1515,200May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Poland of about 3.39% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 21 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Poland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

7,580

-

Apr 16

7,920

+336 (+4.43%)

Apr 17

8,380

+461 (+5.82%)

Apr 18

8,740

+363 (+4.33%)

Apr 19

9,290

+545 (+6.23%)

Apr 20

9,590

+306 (+3.29%)

Apr 21

9,860

+263 (+2.74%)

Apr 22

10,200

+313 (+3.18%)

Apr 23

10,500

+342 (+3.36%)

Apr 24

10,900

+381 (+3.62%)

Apr 25

11,200
11,200 - 11,300

+356 (+3.27%)

Apr 26

11,600
11,600 - 11,700

+381 (+3.39%)

Apr 27

12,000
12,000 - 12,000

+394 (+3.39%)

Apr 28

12,400
12,400 - 12,500

+407 (+3.39%)

Apr 29

12,900
12,800 - 12,900

+421 (+3.39%)

Apr 30

13,300
13,300 - 13,300

+435 (+3.39%)

May 1

13,700
13,700 - 13,800

+450 (+3.39%)

May 2

14,200
14,200 - 14,200

+465 (+3.39%)

May 3

14,700
14,600 - 14,700

+481 (+3.39%)

May 4

15,200
15,100 - 15,200

+497 (+3.39%)

Deaths by coronavirus

494Apr 24286Apr 15978May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Poland of about 7.14% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 10 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Poland assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

286

-

Apr 16

314

+28 (+9.79%)

Apr 17

332

+18 (+5.73%)

Apr 18

347

+15 (+4.52%)

Apr 19

360

+13 (+3.75%)

Apr 20

380

+20 (+5.56%)

Apr 21

401

+21 (+5.53%)

Apr 22

426

+25 (+6.23%)

Apr 23

454

+28 (+6.57%)

Apr 24

494

+40 (+8.81%)

Apr 25

526
519 - 532

+32 (+6.4%)

Apr 26

563
556 - 570

+38 (+7.14%)

Apr 27

603
596 - 611

+40 (+7.14%)

Apr 28

646
638 - 655

+43 (+7.14%)

Apr 29

693
684 - 701

+46 (+7.14%)

Apr 30

742
733 - 751

+49 (+7.14%)

May 1

795
785 - 805

+53 (+7.14%)

May 2

852
841 - 862

+57 (+7.14%)

May 3

912
901 - 924

+61 (+7.14%)

May 4

978
965 - 990

+65 (+7.14%)

What is the mortality rate in Poland?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,08023281815132021252840Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Poland, approx. 1.04% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 38,000,000 people in Poland, that corresponds to about 1,080 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4.5%4.7%4.9%5%5.1%5.3%5.7%5.9%6.2%6.5%6.9%7.1%7.4%7.8%8.3%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Poland would be approx. 5.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Poland?

Coronavirus infections

5.28%4.43%5.82%4.33%6.23%3.29%2.74%3.18%3.36%3.62%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Poland in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

8.75%9.79%5.73%4.52%3.75%5.56%5.53%6.23%6.57%8.81%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Poland in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Poland develop?

High standardMedium standard86Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Poland. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (11,400 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,700 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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