Coronavirus in Philippines

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Philippines and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

7,190Apr 245,450Apr 159,670May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Philippines of about 3.02% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 23 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Philippines assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5,450

-

Apr 16

5,660

+207 (+3.8%)

Apr 17

5,880

+218 (+3.85%)

Apr 18

6,090

+209 (+3.56%)

Apr 19

6,260

+172 (+2.83%)

Apr 20

6,460

+200 (+3.2%)

Apr 21

6,600

+140 (+2.17%)

Apr 22

6,710

+111 (+1.68%)

Apr 23

6,980

+271 (+4.04%)

Apr 24

7,190

+211 (+3.02%)

Apr 25

7,400
7,320 - 7,470

+205 (+2.85%)

Apr 26

7,620
7,550 - 7,700

+224 (+3.02%)

Apr 27

7,850
7,770 - 7,930

+230 (+3.02%)

Apr 28

8,090
8,010 - 8,170

+237 (+3.02%)

Apr 29

8,330
8,250 - 8,420

+244 (+3.02%)

Apr 30

8,580
8,500 - 8,670

+252 (+3.02%)

May 1

8,840
8,760 - 8,930

+259 (+3.02%)

May 2

9,110
9,020 - 9,200

+267 (+3.02%)

May 3

9,390
9,300 - 9,480

+275 (+3.02%)

May 4

9,670
9,580 - 9,770

+284 (+3.02%)

Deaths by coronavirus

477Apr 24349Apr 15641May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Philippines of about 3.02% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 23 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Philippines assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

349

-

Apr 16

362

+13 (+3.72%)

Apr 17

387

+25 (+6.91%)

Apr 18

397

+10 (+2.58%)

Apr 19

409

+12 (+3.02%)

Apr 20

428

+19 (+4.65%)

Apr 21

437

+9 (+2.1%)

Apr 22

446

+9 (+2.06%)

Apr 23

462

+16 (+3.59%)

Apr 24

477

+15 (+3.25%)

Apr 25

490
487 - 494

+13 (+2.82%)

Apr 26

505
502 - 509

+15 (+3.02%)

Apr 27

521
517 - 524

+15 (+3.02%)

Apr 28

536
533 - 540

+16 (+3.02%)

Apr 29

553
549 - 556

+16 (+3.02%)

Apr 30

569
565 - 573

+17 (+3.02%)

May 1

586
582 - 591

+17 (+3.02%)

May 2

604
600 - 608

+18 (+3.02%)

May 3

622
618 - 627

+18 (+3.02%)

May 4

641
637 - 646

+19 (+3.02%)

What is the mortality rate in Philippines?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,440141325101219991615Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Philippines, approx. 0.492% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 107,000,000 people in Philippines, that corresponds to about 1,440 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

6.6%6.8%7.1%7.2%7.4%7.6%7.8%8.1%8.4%8.7%9.1%9.7%10%11%11%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Philippines would be approx. 8.1%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Philippines?

Coronavirus infections

4.4%3.8%3.85%3.56%2.83%3.2%2.17%1.68%4.04%3.02%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Philippines in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

4.18%3.72%6.91%2.58%3.02%4.65%2.1%2.06%3.59%3.25%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Philippines in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Philippines develop?

High standardMedium standard49Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Philippines. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (32,000 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (16,000 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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