Coronavirus in Peru

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Peru and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

21,600Apr 2411,500Apr 1542,600May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Peru of about 6.86% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 10 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Peru assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

11,500

-

Apr 16

12,500

+1,020 (+8.85%)

Apr 17

13,500

+998 (+7.99%)

Apr 18

14,400

+931 (+6.9%)

Apr 19

15,600

+1,210 (+8.38%)

Apr 20

16,300

+697 (+4.46%)

Apr 21

17,800

+1,510 (+9.26%)

Apr 22

19,300

+1,410 (+7.92%)

Apr 23

20,900

+1,660 (+8.64%)

Apr 24

21,600

+734 (+3.51%)

Apr 25

23,400
22,900 - 24,000

+1,790 (+8.28%)

Apr 26

25,000
24,500 - 25,700

+1,610 (+6.86%)

Apr 27

26,800
26,100 - 27,400

+1,720 (+6.86%)

Apr 28

28,600
27,900 - 29,300

+1,840 (+6.86%)

Apr 29

30,600
29,800 - 31,300

+1,960 (+6.86%)

Apr 30

32,700
31,900 - 33,500

+2,100 (+6.86%)

May 1

34,900
34,100 - 35,800

+2,240 (+6.86%)

May 2

37,300
36,400 - 38,200

+2,400 (+6.86%)

May 3

39,900
38,900 - 40,800

+2,560 (+6.86%)

May 4

42,600
41,600 - 43,600

+2,740 (+6.86%)

Deaths by coronavirus

634Apr 24254Apr 151,530May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Peru of about 9.27% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 7.8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Peru assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

254

-

Apr 16

274

+20 (+7.87%)

Apr 17

300

+26 (+9.49%)

Apr 18

348

+48 (+16%)

Apr 19

400

+52 (+14.9%)

Apr 20

445

+45 (+11.3%)

Apr 21

484

+39 (+8.76%)

Apr 22

530

+46 (+9.5%)

Apr 23

572

+42 (+7.92%)

Apr 24

634

+62 (+10.8%)

Apr 25

689
682 - 697

+55 (+8.71%)

Apr 26

753
745 - 761

+64 (+9.27%)

Apr 27

823
814 - 832

+70 (+9.27%)

Apr 28

899
889 - 909

+76 (+9.27%)

Apr 29

982
972 - 993

+83 (+9.27%)

Apr 30

1,070
1,060 - 1,090

+91 (+9.27%)

May 1

1,170
1,160 - 1,190

+99 (+9.27%)

May 2

1,280
1,270 - 1,300

+109 (+9.27%)

May 3

1,400
1,390 - 1,420

+119 (+9.27%)

May 4

1,530
1,510 - 1,550

+130 (+9.27%)

What is the mortality rate in Peru?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

52524202648524539464262Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Peru, approx. 0.599% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 32,000,000 people in Peru, that corresponds to about 525 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.9%3%3.3%3.6%3.9%4.1%4.4%4.7%5.1%5.5%6.2%6.5%8.4%9.3%11%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Peru would be approx. 4.7%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Peru?

Coronavirus infections

11.4%8.85%7.99%6.9%8.38%4.46%9.26%7.92%8.64%3.51%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Peru in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

10.4%7.87%9.49%16%14.9%11.3%8.76%9.5%7.92%10.8%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Peru in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Peru develop?

High standardMedium standard273Apr 254,800Jun 89,600Jun 18

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Peru. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (9,600 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (4,800 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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