Coronavirus in Paraguay

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Paraguay and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

223Apr 24161Apr 15272May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Paraguay of about 2.11% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 33 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Paraguay assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

161

-

Apr 16

174

+13 (+8.07%)

Apr 17

199

+25 (+14.4%)

Apr 18

202

+3 (+1.51%)

Apr 19

206

+4 (+1.98%)

Apr 20

208

+2 (+0.971%)

Apr 21

208

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

213

+5 (+2.4%)

Apr 23

213

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

223

+10 (+4.69%)

Apr 25

226
221 - 230

+3 (+1.19%)

Apr 26

230
226 - 235

+5 (+2.11%)

Apr 27

235
231 - 240

+5 (+2.11%)

Apr 28

240
236 - 245

+5 (+2.11%)

Apr 29

245
241 - 250

+5 (+2.11%)

Apr 30

251
246 - 255

+5 (+2.11%)

May 1

256
251 - 261

+5 (+2.11%)

May 2

261
256 - 266

+5 (+2.11%)

May 3

267
262 - 272

+6 (+2.11%)

May 4

272
267 - 278

+6 (+2.11%)

Deaths by coronavirus

9Apr 248Apr 1513May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Paraguay of about 3.6% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 20 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Paraguay assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

8

-

Apr 16

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

9

+1 (+12.5%)

Apr 23

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

9

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

10
9 - 10

+0 (+6.07%)

Apr 26

10
9 - 11

+0 (+3.6%)

Apr 27

10
10 - 11

+0 (+3.6%)

Apr 28

11
10 - 11

+0 (+3.6%)

Apr 29

11
10 - 12

+0 (+3.6%)

Apr 30

11
11 - 12

+0 (+3.6%)

May 1

12
11 - 13

+0 (+3.6%)

May 2

12
11 - 13

+0 (+3.6%)

May 3

13
12 - 14

+0 (+3.6%)

May 4

13
12 - 14

+0 (+3.6%)

What is the mortality rate in Paraguay?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

881000000100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Paraguay, approx. 0.464% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 6,960,000 people in Paraguay, that corresponds to about 88 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

4%4.2%4.2%4.3%4.3%4.4%4.5%4.5%5.2%5.6%5.7%6.1%6.7%6.8%7%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Paraguay would be approx. 4.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Paraguay?

Coronavirus infections

1.26%8.07%14.4%1.51%1.98%0.971%0%2.4%0%4.69%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Paraguay in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

14.3%0%0%0%0%0%0%12.5%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Paraguay in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Paraguay develop?

High standardMedium standard2Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Paraguay. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,090 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,040 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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