Coronavirus in Panama

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Panama and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

5,340Apr 243,570Apr 158,640May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Panama of about 4.9% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 15 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Panama assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3,570

-

Apr 16

3,750

+177 (+4.95%)

Apr 17

4,020

+265 (+7.06%)

Apr 18

4,210

+194 (+4.83%)

Apr 19

4,270

+63 (+1.5%)

Apr 20

4,470

+194 (+4.54%)

Apr 21

4,660

+191 (+4.28%)

Apr 22

4,820

+163 (+3.5%)

Apr 23

5,170

+345 (+7.16%)

Apr 24

5,340

+172 (+3.33%)

Apr 25

5,620
5,530 - 5,710

+284 (+5.31%)

Apr 26

5,900
5,800 - 5,990

+275 (+4.9%)

Apr 27

6,190
6,090 - 6,280

+289 (+4.9%)

Apr 28

6,490
6,390 - 6,590

+303 (+4.9%)

Apr 29

6,810
6,700 - 6,910

+318 (+4.9%)

Apr 30

7,140
7,030 - 7,250

+333 (+4.9%)

May 1

7,490
7,370 - 7,610

+349 (+4.9%)

May 2

7,850
7,730 - 7,980

+367 (+4.9%)

May 3

8,240
8,110 - 8,370

+385 (+4.9%)

May 4

8,640
8,510 - 8,780

+403 (+4.9%)

Deaths by coronavirus

154Apr 2495Apr 15230May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Panama of about 4.16% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 17 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Panama assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

95

-

Apr 16

103

+8 (+8.42%)

Apr 17

109

+6 (+5.83%)

Apr 18

116

+7 (+6.42%)

Apr 19

120

+4 (+3.45%)

Apr 20

126

+6 (+5%)

Apr 21

136

+10 (+7.94%)

Apr 22

141

+5 (+3.68%)

Apr 23

146

+5 (+3.55%)

Apr 24

154

+8 (+5.48%)

Apr 25

160
158 - 161

+6 (+3.61%)

Apr 26

166
165 - 168

+7 (+4.16%)

Apr 27

173
171 - 175

+7 (+4.16%)

Apr 28

180
179 - 182

+7 (+4.16%)

Apr 29

188
186 - 190

+8 (+4.16%)

Apr 30

196
194 - 198

+8 (+4.16%)

May 1

204
202 - 206

+8 (+4.16%)

May 2

212
210 - 214

+8 (+4.16%)

May 3

221
219 - 223

+9 (+4.16%)

May 4

230
228 - 233

+9 (+4.16%)

What is the mortality rate in Panama?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

5518674610558Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Panama, approx. 0.477% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 4,180,000 people in Panama, that corresponds to about 55 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.9%3%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.6%3.7%3.8%4.1%4.3%4.4%4.5%4.8%5.2%5.6%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Panama would be approx. 3.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Panama?

Coronavirus infections

2.94%4.95%7.06%4.83%1.5%4.54%4.28%3.5%7.16%3.33%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Panama in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

1.06%8.42%5.83%6.42%3.45%5%7.94%3.68%3.55%5.48%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Panama in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Panama develop?

High standardMedium standard44Apr 25627Jun 171,250Jul 1

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Panama. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,250 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (627 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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