Coronavirus in Pakistan

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Pakistan and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

11,900Apr 246,380Apr 1525,700May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Pakistan of about 7.97% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Pakistan assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6,380

-

Apr 16

6,920

+536 (+8.4%)

Apr 17

7,030

+106 (+1.53%)

Apr 18

7,640

+613 (+8.73%)

Apr 19

8,350

+710 (+9.3%)

Apr 20

8,420

+70 (+0.839%)

Apr 21

9,570

+1,150 (+13.6%)

Apr 22

10,100

+511 (+5.34%)

Apr 23

11,200

+1,080 (+10.7%)

Apr 24

11,900

+785 (+7.04%)

Apr 25

12,900
12,600 - 13,200

+954 (+7.99%)

Apr 26

13,900
13,600 - 14,200

+1,030 (+7.97%)

Apr 27

15,000
14,700 - 15,300

+1,110 (+7.97%)

Apr 28

16,200
15,900 - 16,600

+1,200 (+7.97%)

Apr 29

17,500
17,200 - 17,900

+1,290 (+7.97%)

Apr 30

18,900
18,500 - 19,300

+1,400 (+7.97%)

May 1

20,400
20,000 - 20,800

+1,510 (+7.97%)

May 2

22,100
21,600 - 22,500

+1,630 (+7.97%)

May 3

23,800
23,300 - 24,300

+1,760 (+7.97%)

May 4

25,700
25,200 - 26,200

+1,900 (+7.97%)

Deaths by coronavirus

253Apr 24111Apr 15565May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Pakistan of about 8.35% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 8.6 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Pakistan assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

111

-

Apr 16

128

+17 (+15.3%)

Apr 17

135

+7 (+5.47%)

Apr 18

143

+8 (+5.93%)

Apr 19

168

+25 (+17.5%)

Apr 20

176

+8 (+4.76%)

Apr 21

201

+25 (+14.2%)

Apr 22

212

+11 (+5.47%)

Apr 23

237

+25 (+11.8%)

Apr 24

253

+16 (+6.75%)

Apr 25

275
268 - 281

+22 (+8.59%)

Apr 26

298
291 - 305

+23 (+8.35%)

Apr 27

323
315 - 330

+25 (+8.35%)

Apr 28

349
341 - 358

+27 (+8.35%)

Apr 29

379
370 - 388

+29 (+8.35%)

Apr 30

410
400 - 420

+32 (+8.35%)

May 1

444
434 - 455

+34 (+8.35%)

May 2

482
470 - 493

+37 (+8.35%)

May 3

522
509 - 534

+40 (+8.35%)

May 4

565
552 - 579

+44 (+8.35%)

What is the mortality rate in Pakistan?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

3,83015177825825112516Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Pakistan, approx. 0.658% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 212,000,000 people in Pakistan, that corresponds to about 3,830 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.1%2.3%2.5%2.6%3%3%3.3%3.6%3.7%4%4.3%4.6%4.8%5%5.4%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Pakistan would be approx. 3.6%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Pakistan?

Coronavirus infections

9.35%8.4%1.53%8.73%9.3%0.839%13.6%5.34%10.7%7.04%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Pakistan in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

15.6%15.3%5.47%5.93%17.5%4.76%14.2%5.47%11.8%6.75%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Pakistan in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Pakistan develop?

High standardMedium standard148Apr 2531,800Jul 363,700Jul 12

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Pakistan. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (63,700 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (31,800 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy