Coronavirus in Norway

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Norway and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

7,460Apr 246,740Apr 158,430May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Norway of about 1.21% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 58 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Norway assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6,740

-

Apr 16

6,900

+156 (+2.31%)

Apr 17

6,940

+41 (+0.595%)

Apr 18

7,040

+99 (+1.43%)

Apr 19

7,080

+42 (+0.597%)

Apr 20

7,160

+78 (+1.1%)

Apr 21

7,190

+35 (+0.489%)

Apr 22

7,340

+147 (+2.04%)

Apr 23

7,400

+63 (+0.859%)

Apr 24

7,460

+62 (+0.838%)

Apr 25

7,570
7,520 - 7,620

+108 (+1.45%)

Apr 26

7,660
7,610 - 7,710

+91 (+1.21%)

Apr 27

7,750
7,700 - 7,810

+92 (+1.21%)

Apr 28

7,850
7,800 - 7,900

+94 (+1.21%)

Apr 29

7,940
7,890 - 7,990

+95 (+1.21%)

Apr 30

8,040
7,990 - 8,090

+96 (+1.21%)

May 1

8,140
8,080 - 8,190

+97 (+1.21%)

May 2

8,230
8,180 - 8,290

+98 (+1.21%)

May 3

8,330
8,280 - 8,390

+99 (+1.21%)

May 4

8,430
8,380 - 8,490

+101 (+1.21%)

Deaths by coronavirus

199Apr 24150Apr 15270May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Norway of about 3.09% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 23 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Norway assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

150

-

Apr 16

152

+2 (+1.33%)

Apr 17

161

+9 (+5.92%)

Apr 18

164

+3 (+1.86%)

Apr 19

165

+1 (+0.61%)

Apr 20

181

+16 (+9.7%)

Apr 21

182

+1 (+0.552%)

Apr 22

187

+5 (+2.75%)

Apr 23

194

+7 (+3.74%)

Apr 24

199

+5 (+2.58%)

Apr 25

205
204 - 206

+6 (+3.24%)

Apr 26

212
211 - 213

+6 (+3.09%)

Apr 27

218
217 - 219

+7 (+3.09%)

Apr 28

225
224 - 226

+7 (+3.09%)

Apr 29

232
231 - 233

+7 (+3.09%)

Apr 30

239
238 - 240

+7 (+3.09%)

May 1

247
245 - 248

+7 (+3.09%)

May 2

254
253 - 256

+8 (+3.09%)

May 3

262
261 - 263

+8 (+3.09%)

May 4

270
269 - 272

+8 (+3.09%)

What is the mortality rate in Norway?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

119112931161575Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Norway, approx. 0.819% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 5,310,000 people in Norway, that corresponds to about 119 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.7%2.7%2.7%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.8%2.9%2.9%3%3%3%3%3.1%3.2%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Norway would be approx. 2.9%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Norway?

Coronavirus infections

1.77%2.31%0.595%1.43%0.597%1.1%0.489%2.04%0.859%0.838%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Norway in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

7.91%1.33%5.92%1.86%0.61%9.7%0.552%2.75%3.74%2.58%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Norway in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Norway develop?

High standardMedium standard19Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Norway. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,590 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (797 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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