Coronavirus in Nigeria

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Nigeria and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,100Apr 24407Apr 155,680May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Nigeria of about 17.5% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 4.3 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Nigeria assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

407

-

Apr 16

442

+35 (+8.6%)

Apr 17

493

+51 (+11.5%)

Apr 18

542

+49 (+9.94%)

Apr 19

627

+85 (+15.7%)

Apr 20

665

+38 (+6.06%)

Apr 21

665

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

873

+208 (+31.3%)

Apr 23

981

+108 (+12.4%)

Apr 24

1,100

+114 (+11.6%)

Apr 25

1,330
1,220 - 1,450

+235 (+21.5%)

Apr 26

1,560
1,430 - 1,710

+233 (+17.5%)

Apr 27

1,840
1,680 - 2,000

+273 (+17.5%)

Apr 28

2,160
1,980 - 2,360

+321 (+17.5%)

Apr 29

2,540
2,320 - 2,770

+378 (+17.5%)

Apr 30

2,980
2,730 - 3,250

+444 (+17.5%)

May 1

3,500
3,210 - 3,820

+521 (+17.5%)

May 2

4,110
3,770 - 4,490

+613 (+17.5%)

May 3

4,830
4,430 - 5,280

+720 (+17.5%)

May 4

5,680
5,200 - 6,200

+846 (+17.5%)

Deaths by coronavirus

32Apr 2412Apr 15114May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Nigeria of about 13% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 5.7 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Nigeria assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

12

-

Apr 16

13

+1 (+8.33%)

Apr 17

17

+4 (+30.8%)

Apr 18

19

+2 (+11.8%)

Apr 19

21

+2 (+10.5%)

Apr 20

22

+1 (+4.76%)

Apr 21

22

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

28

+6 (+27.3%)

Apr 23

31

+3 (+10.7%)

Apr 24

32

+1 (+3.23%)

Apr 25

38
34 - 42

+6 (+18.7%)

Apr 26

43
39 - 48

+5 (+13%)

Apr 27

49
44 - 54

+6 (+13%)

Apr 28

55
49 - 61

+6 (+13%)

Apr 29

62
56 - 69

+7 (+13%)

Apr 30

70
63 - 78

+8 (+13%)

May 1

79
71 - 88

+9 (+13%)

May 2

90
81 - 100

+10 (+13%)

May 3

101
91 - 113

+12 (+13%)

May 4

114
103 - 127

+13 (+13%)

What is the mortality rate in Nigeria?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

6,6501142210631Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Nigeria, approx. 1.24% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 196,000,000 people in Nigeria, that corresponds to about 6,650 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.9%3.3%3.7%4.8%4.8%5.1%5.9%6.5%7.2%7.9%8.6%9.3%9.9%10%10%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Nigeria would be approx. 6.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Nigeria?

Coronavirus infections

9.12%8.6%11.5%9.94%15.7%6.06%0%31.3%12.4%11.6%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Nigeria in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

9.09%8.33%30.8%11.8%10.5%4.76%0%27.3%10.7%3.23%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Nigeria in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Nigeria develop?

High standardMedium standard20Apr 2529,400Jun 858,800Jun 12

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Nigeria. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (58,800 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (29,400 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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