Coronavirus in Niger

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Niger and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

681Apr 24584Apr 15767May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Niger of about 1.22% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 57 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Niger assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

584

-

Apr 16

584

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

627

+43 (+7.36%)

Apr 18

639

+12 (+1.91%)

Apr 19

648

+9 (+1.41%)

Apr 20

648

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

657

+9 (+1.39%)

Apr 22

662

+5 (+0.761%)

Apr 23

671

+9 (+1.36%)

Apr 24

681

+10 (+1.49%)

Apr 25

688
686 - 691

+7 (+1.06%)

Apr 26

697
694 - 699

+8 (+1.22%)

Apr 27

705
702 - 708

+8 (+1.22%)

Apr 28

714
711 - 716

+9 (+1.22%)

Apr 29

722
720 - 725

+9 (+1.22%)

Apr 30

731
728 - 734

+9 (+1.22%)

May 1

740
737 - 743

+9 (+1.22%)

May 2

749
746 - 752

+9 (+1.22%)

May 3

758
755 - 761

+9 (+1.22%)

May 4

767
765 - 770

+9 (+1.22%)

Deaths by coronavirus

24Apr 2414Apr 1547May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Niger of about 6.55% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 11 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Niger assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

14

-

Apr 16

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

18

+4 (+28.6%)

Apr 18

19

+1 (+5.56%)

Apr 19

20

+1 (+5.26%)

Apr 20

20

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

20

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

22

+2 (+10%)

Apr 23

24

+2 (+9.09%)

Apr 24

24

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

26
25 - 28

+2 (+9.54%)

Apr 26

28
27 - 29

+2 (+6.55%)

Apr 27

30
28 - 31

+2 (+6.55%)

Apr 28

32
30 - 33

+2 (+6.55%)

Apr 29

34
32 - 36

+2 (+6.55%)

Apr 30

36
34 - 38

+2 (+6.55%)

May 1

38
37 - 40

+2 (+6.55%)

May 2

41
39 - 43

+3 (+6.55%)

May 3

44
41 - 46

+3 (+6.55%)

May 4

47
44 - 49

+3 (+6.55%)

What is the mortality rate in Niger?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

7260041100220Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Niger, approx. 1.18% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 22,400,000 people in Niger, that corresponds to about 726 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

3.5%3.6%3.6%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.8%3.8%4.1%4.1%4.2%4.5%4.5%4.9%5.5%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Niger would be approx. 3.8%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Niger?

Coronavirus infections

2.46%0%7.36%1.91%1.41%0%1.39%0.761%1.36%1.49%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Niger in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%28.6%5.56%5.26%0%0%10%9.09%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Niger in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Niger develop?

High standardMedium standard3Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Niger. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (6,730 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (3,370 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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