Coronavirus in Nepal

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Nepal and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

49Apr 2416Apr 1578May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Nepal of about 4.67% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 15 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Nepal assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

16

-

Apr 16

16

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

30

+14 (+87.5%)

Apr 18

31

+1 (+3.33%)

Apr 19

31

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

31

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

43

+12 (+38.7%)

Apr 22

45

+2 (+4.65%)

Apr 23

48

+3 (+6.67%)

Apr 24

49

+1 (+2.08%)

Apr 25

52
51 - 53

+3 (+5.65%)

Apr 26

54
53 - 55

+2 (+4.67%)

Apr 27

57
56 - 58

+3 (+4.67%)

Apr 28

59
58 - 60

+3 (+4.67%)

Apr 29

62
61 - 63

+3 (+4.67%)

Apr 30

65
64 - 66

+3 (+4.67%)

May 1

68
67 - 69

+3 (+4.67%)

May 2

71
70 - 73

+3 (+4.67%)

May 3

75
73 - 76

+3 (+4.67%)

May 4

78
77 - 80

+3 (+4.67%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Apr 240Apr 15

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Nepal assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

0

-

Apr 16

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

0

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Nepal?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

5090000000000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Nepal, approx. 0.662% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 28,100,000 people in Nepal, that corresponds to about 509 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Nepal would be approx. 0%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Nepal?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%87.5%3.33%0%0%38.7%4.65%6.67%2.08%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Nepal in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Nepal in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Nepal develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Nepal. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (8,430 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (4,210 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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