Coronavirus in Montenegro

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Montenegro and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

319Apr 24288Apr 15338May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Montenegro of about 0.603% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 120 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Montenegro assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

288

-

Apr 16

303

+15 (+5.21%)

Apr 17

303

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

307

+4 (+1.32%)

Apr 19

308

+1 (+0.326%)

Apr 20

312

+4 (+1.3%)

Apr 21

313

+1 (+0.321%)

Apr 22

315

+2 (+0.639%)

Apr 23

316

+1 (+0.317%)

Apr 24

319

+3 (+0.949%)

Apr 25

321
320 - 321

+2 (+0.478%)

Apr 26

322
322 - 323

+2 (+0.603%)

Apr 27

324
324 - 325

+2 (+0.603%)

Apr 28

326
326 - 327

+2 (+0.603%)

Apr 29

328
327 - 329

+2 (+0.603%)

Apr 30

330
329 - 331

+2 (+0.603%)

May 1

332
331 - 333

+2 (+0.603%)

May 2

334
333 - 335

+2 (+0.603%)

May 3

336
335 - 337

+2 (+0.603%)

May 4

338
337 - 339

+2 (+0.603%)

Deaths by coronavirus

6Apr 244Apr 1510May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Montenegro of about 5.62% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 13 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Montenegro assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

4

-

Apr 16

4

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

5

+1 (+25%)

Apr 18

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

5

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

6

+1 (+20%)

Apr 25

6
5 - 7

+0 (+1.02e-10%)

Apr 26

6
6 - 7

+0 (+5.62%)

Apr 27

7
6 - 7

+0 (+5.62%)

Apr 28

7
6 - 8

+0 (+5.62%)

Apr 29

7
7 - 8

+0 (+5.62%)

Apr 30

8
7 - 9

+0 (+5.62%)

May 1

8
8 - 9

+0 (+5.62%)

May 2

9
8 - 10

+0 (+5.62%)

May 3

9
8 - 10

+0 (+5.62%)

May 4

10
9 - 11

+0 (+5.62%)

What is the mortality rate in Montenegro?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

170010000001Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Montenegro, approx. 0.97% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 622,000 people in Montenegro, that corresponds to about 17 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%1.9%2%2%2%2.1%2.1%2.2%2.2%2.3%2.4%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Montenegro would be approx. 2%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Montenegro?

Coronavirus infections

1.77%5.21%0%1.32%0.326%1.3%0.321%0.639%0.317%0.949%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Montenegro in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%25%0%0%0%0%0%0%20%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Montenegro in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Montenegro develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Montenegro. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (187 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (93 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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