Coronavirus in Mexico

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Mexico and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

12,900Apr 245,400Apr 1550,100May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Mexico of about 14.5% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 5.1 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Mexico assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

5,400

-

Apr 16

5,850

+448 (+8.3%)

Apr 17

6,300

+450 (+7.7%)

Apr 18

6,880

+578 (+9.18%)

Apr 19

7,500

+622 (+9.05%)

Apr 20

8,260

+764 (+10.2%)

Apr 21

8,770

+511 (+6.19%)

Apr 22

9,500

+729 (+8.31%)

Apr 23

11,600

+2,130 (+22.4%)

Apr 24

12,900

+1,240 (+10.7%)

Apr 25

14,800
14,100 - 15,600

+1,950 (+15.2%)

Apr 26

17,000
16,100 - 17,900

+2,150 (+14.5%)

Apr 27

19,400
18,500 - 20,400

+2,460 (+14.5%)

Apr 28

22,200
21,100 - 23,400

+2,810 (+14.5%)

Apr 29

25,500
24,200 - 26,800

+3,220 (+14.5%)

Apr 30

29,200
27,700 - 30,700

+3,690 (+14.5%)

May 1

33,400
31,700 - 35,100

+4,220 (+14.5%)

May 2

38,200
36,300 - 40,200

+4,840 (+14.5%)

May 3

43,800
41,600 - 46,000

+5,540 (+14.5%)

May 4

50,100
47,600 - 52,700

+6,340 (+14.5%)

Deaths by coronavirus

1,220Apr 24406Apr 157,830May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Mexico of about 20.2% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 3.8 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Mexico assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

406

-

Apr 16

449

+43 (+10.6%)

Apr 17

486

+37 (+8.24%)

Apr 18

546

+60 (+12.3%)

Apr 19

650

+104 (+19%)

Apr 20

686

+36 (+5.54%)

Apr 21

712

+26 (+3.79%)

Apr 22

857

+145 (+20.4%)

Apr 23

1,070

+212 (+24.7%)

Apr 24

1,220

+152 (+14.2%)

Apr 25

1,500
1,440 - 1,550

+275 (+22.5%)

Apr 26

1,800
1,730 - 1,870

+302 (+20.2%)

Apr 27

2,160
2,080 - 2,250

+363 (+20.2%)

Apr 28

2,600
2,500 - 2,700

+436 (+20.2%)

Apr 29

3,120
3,010 - 3,240

+524 (+20.2%)

Apr 30

3,750
3,610 - 3,900

+630 (+20.2%)

May 1

4,510
4,340 - 4,690

+758 (+20.2%)

May 2

5,420
5,220 - 5,630

+911 (+20.2%)

May 3

6,520
6,270 - 6,770

+1,090 (+20.2%)

May 4

7,830
7,540 - 8,130

+1,320 (+20.2%)

What is the mortality rate in Mexico?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1,810744337601043626145212152Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Mexico, approx. 0.524% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 126,000,000 people in Mexico, that corresponds to about 1,810 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

9.5%10%13%14%15%16%18%19%21%23%24%26%29%32%35%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Mexico would be approx. 19%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Mexico?

Coronavirus infections

7.68%8.3%7.7%9.18%9.05%10.2%6.19%8.31%22.4%10.7%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Mexico in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

22.3%10.6%8.24%12.3%19%5.54%3.79%20.4%24.7%14.2%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Mexico in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Mexico develop?

High standardMedium standard203Apr 2518,900May 2737,900Jun 1

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Mexico. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (37,900 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (18,900 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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