Coronavirus in Mayotte

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Mayotte and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

11Mar 221Mar 16644Apr 1

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Mayotte of about 50% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 1.7 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Mayotte assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 16

1

-

Mar 17

1

+0 (+0%)

Mar 18

3

+2 (+200%)

Mar 19

3

+0 (+0%)

Mar 20

6

+3 (+100%)

Mar 21

7

+1 (+16.7%)

Mar 22

11

+4 (+57.1%)

Mar 23

17
13 - 21

+6 (+52.8%)

Mar 24

25
20 - 31

+8 (+50%)

Mar 25

38
30 - 47

+13 (+50%)

Mar 26

57
45 - 71

+19 (+50%)

Mar 27

85
68 - 106

+28 (+50%)

Mar 28

127
102 - 159

+42 (+50%)

Mar 29

191
153 - 239

+64 (+50%)

Mar 30

287
229 - 358

+95 (+50%)

Mar 31

430
344 - 537

+143 (+50%)

Apr 1

644
516 - 805

+215 (+50%)

Deaths by coronavirus

0Mar 220Mar 16

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Mayotte assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 16

0

-

Mar 17

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 18

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 19

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 20

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 21

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 22

0

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Mayotte?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1000000Mar 17Mar 22)}

In Mayotte, approx. 0.3% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 159,000 people in Mayotte, that corresponds to about 1 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0 days6 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Mayotte?

Coronavirus infections

0%200%0%100%16.7%57.1%Mar 17Mar 22)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Mayotte in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%Mar 17Mar 22)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Mayotte in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Mayotte develop?

High standardMedium standard0Mar 2324Apr 248Apr 4

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Mayotte. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (48 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (24 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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