Coronavirus in Martinique

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Martinique and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

37Mar 223Mar 13158Apr 1

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Martinique of about 15.3% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 4.9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Martinique assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

3

-

Mar 14

9

+6 (+200%)

Mar 15

9

+0 (+0%)

Mar 16

15

+6 (+66.7%)

Mar 17

16

+1 (+6.67%)

Mar 18

19

+3 (+18.8%)

Mar 19

23

+4 (+21.1%)

Mar 20

32

+9 (+39.1%)

Mar 21

32

+0 (+0%)

Mar 22

37

+5 (+15.6%)

Mar 23

44
38 - 50

+7 (+18%)

Mar 24

50
44 - 58

+7 (+15.3%)

Mar 25

58
50 - 67

+8 (+15.3%)

Mar 26

67
58 - 77

+9 (+15.3%)

Mar 27

77
67 - 89

+10 (+15.3%)

Mar 28

89
77 - 103

+12 (+15.3%)

Mar 29

103
89 - 118

+14 (+15.3%)

Mar 30

118
103 - 136

+16 (+15.3%)

Mar 31

137
119 - 157

+18 (+15.3%)

Apr 1

158
137 - 181

+21 (+15.3%)

Deaths by coronavirus

1Mar 220Mar 13

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Martinique assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Mar 13

0

-

Mar 14

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 15

0

+0 (+0%)

Mar 16

1

+0 (+0%)

Mar 17

1

+0 (+0%)

Mar 18

1

+0 (+0%)

Mar 19

1

+0 (+0%)

Mar 20

1

+0 (+0%)

Mar 21

1

+0 (+0%)

Mar 22

1

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Martinique?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

80001000000Mar 13Mar 22)}

In Martinique, approx. 0.69% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 433,000 people in Martinique, that corresponds to about 8 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.7%3.1%3.1%4.3%5.3%6.3%6.7%11%11%33%33%33%50%0 days12 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Martinique would be approx. 11%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Martinique?

Coronavirus infections

0%200%0%66.7%6.67%18.8%21.1%39.1%0%15.6%Mar 13Mar 22)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Martinique in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%In,fin,ity%0%0%0%0%0%0%Mar 13Mar 22)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Martinique in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Martinique develop?

High standardMedium standard0Mar 2365Apr 23130Apr 28

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Martinique. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (130 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (65 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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