Coronavirus in Mali

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Mali and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

325Apr 24148Apr 15696May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Mali of about 7.74% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 9.3 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Mali assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

148

-

Apr 16

171

+23 (+15.5%)

Apr 17

171

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

216

+45 (+26.3%)

Apr 19

224

+8 (+3.7%)

Apr 20

246

+22 (+9.82%)

Apr 21

258

+12 (+4.88%)

Apr 22

293

+35 (+13.6%)

Apr 23

309

+16 (+5.46%)

Apr 24

325

+16 (+5.18%)

Apr 25

356
341 - 371

+31 (+9.44%)

Apr 26

383
368 - 399

+28 (+7.74%)

Apr 27

413
396 - 430

+30 (+7.74%)

Apr 28

445
427 - 464

+32 (+7.74%)

Apr 29

479
460 - 500

+34 (+7.74%)

Apr 30

516
495 - 538

+37 (+7.74%)

May 1

556
534 - 580

+40 (+7.74%)

May 2

599
575 - 625

+43 (+7.74%)

May 3

646
620 - 673

+46 (+7.74%)

May 4

696
668 - 725

+50 (+7.74%)

Deaths by coronavirus

21Apr 2413Apr 1593May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Mali of about 15.3% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 4.9 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Mali assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

13

-

Apr 16

13

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

13

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

13

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

14

+1 (+7.69%)

Apr 20

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

14

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

17

+3 (+21.4%)

Apr 23

21

+4 (+23.5%)

Apr 24

21

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

26
23 - 29

+5 (+22.5%)

Apr 26

30
27 - 33

+4 (+15.3%)

Apr 27

34
31 - 38

+5 (+15.3%)

Apr 28

39
35 - 44

+5 (+15.3%)

Apr 29

46
41 - 51

+6 (+15.3%)

Apr 30

53
47 - 59

+7 (+15.3%)

May 1

61
54 - 68

+8 (+15.3%)

May 2

70
63 - 78

+9 (+15.3%)

May 3

81
72 - 90

+11 (+15.3%)

May 4

93
83 - 104

+12 (+15.3%)

What is the mortality rate in Mali?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

5120000100340Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Mali, approx. 0.98% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 19,100,000 people in Mali, that corresponds to about 512 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

6.5%6.8%7.2%8.1%8.5%9.4%9.7%12%12%14%15%17%20%24%24%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Mali would be approx. 12%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Mali?

Coronavirus infections

2.78%15.5%0%26.3%3.7%9.82%4.88%13.6%5.46%5.18%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Mali in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%7.69%0%0%21.4%23.5%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Mali in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Mali develop?

High standardMedium standard5Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Mali. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,720 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,860 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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