Coronavirus in Malawi

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Malawi and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

33Apr 2416Apr 15318May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Malawi of about 24.4% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 3.2 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Malawi assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

16

-

Apr 16

16

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

17

+1 (+6.25%)

Apr 18

17

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

17

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

17

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

18

+1 (+5.88%)

Apr 22

23

+5 (+27.8%)

Apr 23

33

+10 (+43.5%)

Apr 24

33

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

45
38 - 53

+12 (+35.4%)

Apr 26

56
47 - 65

+11 (+24.4%)

Apr 27

69
59 - 81

+14 (+24.4%)

Apr 28

86
73 - 101

+17 (+24.4%)

Apr 29

107
91 - 126

+21 (+24.4%)

Apr 30

133
113 - 156

+26 (+24.4%)

May 1

165
140 - 194

+32 (+24.4%)

May 2

205
175 - 242

+40 (+24.4%)

May 3

255
217 - 301

+50 (+24.4%)

May 4

318
270 - 374

+62 (+24.4%)

Deaths by coronavirus

3Apr 242Apr 1511May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Malawi of about 12.9% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 5.7 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Malawi assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

2

-

Apr 16

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

2

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

3

+1 (+50%)

Apr 23

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

3

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

4
3 - 5

+0 (+22.5%)

Apr 26

4
3 - 5

+0 (+12.9%)

Apr 27

5
4 - 6

+0 (+12.9%)

Apr 28

5
4 - 7

+0 (+12.9%)

Apr 29

6
5 - 7

+0 (+12.9%)

Apr 30

7
5 - 8

+0 (+12.9%)

May 1

8
6 - 10

+0 (+12.9%)

May 2

9
7 - 11

+0 (+12.9%)

May 3

10
8 - 12

+1 (+12.9%)

May 4

11
9 - 14

+1 (+12.9%)

What is the mortality rate in Malawi?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

4340000000100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Malawi, approx. 0.874% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 18,100,000 people in Malawi, that corresponds to about 434 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

9.1%9.1%13%17%18%18%18%18%19%19%19%19%23%25%33%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Malawi would be approx. 18%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Malawi?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%6.25%0%0%0%5.88%27.8%43.5%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Malawi in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%50%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Malawi in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Malawi develop?

High standardMedium standard0Apr 252,720Jun 15,440Jun 4

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Malawi. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (5,440 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,720 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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