Coronavirus in Luxembourg

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Luxembourg and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

3,700Apr 243,370Apr 153,950May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Luxembourg of about 0.664% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 100 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Luxembourg assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

3,370

-

Apr 16

3,440

+71 (+2.1%)

Apr 17

3,480

+36 (+1.05%)

Apr 18

3,540

+57 (+1.64%)

Apr 19

3,550

+13 (+0.368%)

Apr 20

3,560

+8 (+0.225%)

Apr 21

3,620

+60 (+1.69%)

Apr 22

3,650

+36 (+0.995%)

Apr 23

3,670

+11 (+0.301%)

Apr 24

3,700

+30 (+0.819%)

Apr 25

3,720
3,710 - 3,730

+24 (+0.647%)

Apr 26

3,740
3,730 - 3,750

+25 (+0.664%)

Apr 27

3,770
3,760 - 3,780

+25 (+0.664%)

Apr 28

3,790
3,780 - 3,800

+25 (+0.664%)

Apr 29

3,820
3,810 - 3,830

+25 (+0.664%)

Apr 30

3,840
3,830 - 3,850

+25 (+0.664%)

May 1

3,870
3,860 - 3,880

+26 (+0.664%)

May 2

3,900
3,880 - 3,910

+26 (+0.664%)

May 3

3,920
3,910 - 3,930

+26 (+0.664%)

May 4

3,950
3,940 - 3,960

+26 (+0.664%)

Deaths by coronavirus

85Apr 2469Apr 15114May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Luxembourg of about 2.99% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 24 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Luxembourg assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

69

-

Apr 16

69

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

72

+3 (+4.35%)

Apr 18

72

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

73

+1 (+1.39%)

Apr 20

75

+2 (+2.74%)

Apr 21

78

+3 (+4%)

Apr 22

80

+2 (+2.56%)

Apr 23

83

+3 (+3.75%)

Apr 24

85

+2 (+2.41%)

Apr 25

88
87 - 88

+3 (+3.16%)

Apr 26

90
90 - 91

+3 (+2.99%)

Apr 27

93
92 - 94

+3 (+2.99%)

Apr 28

96
95 - 96

+3 (+2.99%)

Apr 29

99
98 - 99

+3 (+2.99%)

Apr 30

102
101 - 102

+3 (+2.99%)

May 1

105
104 - 105

+3 (+2.99%)

May 2

108
107 - 108

+3 (+2.99%)

May 3

111
110 - 112

+3 (+2.99%)

May 4

114
114 - 115

+3 (+2.99%)

What is the mortality rate in Luxembourg?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

142030123232Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Luxembourg, approx. 0.853% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 608,000 people in Luxembourg, that corresponds to about 14 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Luxembourg would be approx. 2.4%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Luxembourg?

Coronavirus infections

2%2.1%1.05%1.64%0.368%0.225%1.69%0.995%0.301%0.819%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Luxembourg in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

2.99%0%4.35%0%1.39%2.74%4%2.56%3.75%2.41%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Luxembourg in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Luxembourg develop?

High standardMedium standard9Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Luxembourg. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (182 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (91 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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