Coronavirus in Lithuania

Stay home and save lives!
#StayHome
Share via
      

DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Lithuania and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

1,410Apr 241,090Apr 151,640May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Lithuania of about 1.52% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 46 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Lithuania assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

1,090

-

Apr 16

1,130

+37 (+3.39%)

Apr 17

1,150

+21 (+1.86%)

Apr 18

1,240

+90 (+7.83%)

Apr 19

1,300

+59 (+4.76%)

Apr 20

1,330

+28 (+2.16%)

Apr 21

1,350

+24 (+1.81%)

Apr 22

1,370

+20 (+1.48%)

Apr 23

1,400

+28 (+2.04%)

Apr 24

1,410

+12 (+0.858%)

Apr 25

1,430
1,430 - 1,440

+25 (+1.76%)

Apr 26

1,460
1,450 - 1,460

+22 (+1.52%)

Apr 27

1,480
1,470 - 1,490

+22 (+1.52%)

Apr 28

1,500
1,490 - 1,510

+22 (+1.52%)

Apr 29

1,520
1,520 - 1,530

+23 (+1.52%)

Apr 30

1,550
1,540 - 1,550

+23 (+1.52%)

May 1

1,570
1,560 - 1,580

+23 (+1.52%)

May 2

1,590
1,590 - 1,600

+24 (+1.52%)

May 3

1,620
1,610 - 1,630

+24 (+1.52%)

May 4

1,640
1,640 - 1,650

+25 (+1.52%)

Deaths by coronavirus

40Apr 2430Apr 1549May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Lithuania of about 2.07% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 34 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Lithuania assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

30

-

Apr 16

32

+2 (+6.67%)

Apr 17

33

+1 (+3.13%)

Apr 18

33

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

35

+2 (+6.06%)

Apr 20

37

+2 (+5.71%)

Apr 21

38

+1 (+2.7%)

Apr 22

38

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

40

+2 (+5.26%)

Apr 24

40

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

41
40 - 42

+1 (+2.6%)

Apr 26

42
41 - 43

+0 (+2.07%)

Apr 27

43
42 - 44

+0 (+2.07%)

Apr 28

44
43 - 45

+0 (+2.07%)

Apr 29

45
44 - 46

+0 (+2.07%)

Apr 30

45
44 - 47

+0 (+2.07%)

May 1

46
45 - 47

+0 (+2.07%)

May 2

47
46 - 48

+0 (+2.07%)

May 3

48
47 - 49

+0 (+2.07%)

May 4

49
48 - 51

+1 (+2.07%)

What is the mortality rate in Lithuania?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1121210221020Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Lithuania, approx. 1.46% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 2,790,000 people in Lithuania, that corresponds to about 112 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

2.8%2.9%2.9%3%3%3.1%3.2%3.5%3.5%3.7%3.7%3.8%3.8%3.9%4%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Lithuania would be approx. 3.5%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Lithuania?

Coronavirus infections

1.96%3.39%1.86%7.83%4.76%2.16%1.81%1.48%2.04%0.858%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Lithuania in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

3.45%6.67%3.13%0%6.06%5.71%2.7%0%5.26%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Lithuania in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Lithuania develop?

High standardMedium standard7Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Lithuania. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (837 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (418 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

* = Sponsored links (All prices without obligation and subject to change)

Imprint | Privacy policy