Coronavirus in Liberia

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Liberia and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

117Apr 2459Apr 15174May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Liberia of about 4.51% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 16 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Liberia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

59

-

Apr 16

59

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

76

+17 (+28.8%)

Apr 18

76

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

91

+15 (+19.7%)

Apr 20

99

+8 (+8.79%)

Apr 21

101

+2 (+2.02%)

Apr 22

101

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

101

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

117

+16 (+15.8%)

Apr 25

117
108 - 127

+0 (+-9.59e-10%)

Apr 26

122
113 - 133

+5 (+4.51%)

Apr 27

128
118 - 139

+6 (+4.51%)

Apr 28

134
123 - 145

+6 (+4.51%)

Apr 29

140
129 - 151

+6 (+4.51%)

Apr 30

146
135 - 158

+6 (+4.51%)

May 1

152
141 - 165

+7 (+4.51%)

May 2

159
147 - 173

+7 (+4.51%)

May 3

167
154 - 180

+7 (+4.51%)

May 4

174
161 - 189

+8 (+4.51%)

Deaths by coronavirus

8Apr 246Apr 158May 40

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Liberia assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

6

-

Apr 16

6

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

7

+1 (+16.7%)

Apr 18

7

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

8

+1 (+14.3%)

Apr 20

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 23

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

8
8 - 8

+0 (+-2.22e-14%)

Apr 26

8
8 - 8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 27

8
8 - 8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 28

8
8 - 8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 29

8
8 - 8

+0 (+0%)

Apr 30

8
8 - 8

+0 (+0%)

May 1

8
8 - 8

+0 (+0%)

May 2

8
8 - 8

+0 (+0%)

May 3

8
8 - 8

+0 (+0%)

May 4

8
8 - 8

+0 (+0%)

What is the mortality rate in Liberia?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

1310010100000Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Liberia, approx. 0.99% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 4,820,000 people in Liberia, that corresponds to about 131 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

6.8%7.9%7.9%7.9%8.1%8.8%11%11%14%14%14%14%16%17%22%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Liberia would be approx. 11%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Liberia?

Coronavirus infections

0%0%28.8%0%19.7%8.79%2.02%0%0%15.8%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Liberia in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%16.7%0%14.3%0%0%0%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Liberia in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Liberia develop?

High standardMedium standard1Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Liberia. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,450 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (723 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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