Coronavirus in Lebanon

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DISCLAIMER ✋

The estimates and predictions presented here are based partially on speculative mathematical models. All statements without guarantee!

How were the past few days in Lebanon and how could it go on?

Coronavirus infections

696Apr 24658Apr 15762May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported coronavirus infections in Lebanon of about 0.922% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 76 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported coronavirus infections in Lebanon assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

658

-

Apr 16

663

+5 (+0.76%)

Apr 17

668

+5 (+0.754%)

Apr 18

672

+4 (+0.599%)

Apr 19

673

+1 (+0.149%)

Apr 20

677

+4 (+0.594%)

Apr 21

677

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

682

+5 (+0.739%)

Apr 23

688

+6 (+0.88%)

Apr 24

696

+8 (+1.16%)

Apr 25

702
700 - 703

+6 (+0.809%)

Apr 26

708
707 - 710

+6 (+0.922%)

Apr 27

715
713 - 716

+7 (+0.922%)

Apr 28

721
720 - 723

+7 (+0.922%)

Apr 29

728
726 - 729

+7 (+0.922%)

Apr 30

735
733 - 736

+7 (+0.922%)

May 1

741
740 - 743

+7 (+0.922%)

May 2

748
747 - 750

+7 (+0.922%)

May 3

755
753 - 757

+7 (+0.922%)

May 4

762
760 - 764

+7 (+0.922%)

Deaths by coronavirus

22Apr 2421Apr 1526May 4

Using log-linear regression on the data of the previous days, we could infer an increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Lebanon of about 1.41% each day. That corresponds to a doubling of the numbers approx. every 50 days.

The graph above and the following table show the course of reported deaths by coronavirus in Lebanon assuming that the numbers are following an exponential trend without any slowdown.

Apr 15

21

-

Apr 16

21

+0 (+0%)

Apr 17

21

+0 (+0%)

Apr 18

21

+0 (+0%)

Apr 19

21

+0 (+0%)

Apr 20

21

+0 (+0%)

Apr 21

21

+0 (+0%)

Apr 22

22

+1 (+4.76%)

Apr 23

22

+0 (+0%)

Apr 24

22

+0 (+0%)

Apr 25

23
22 - 23

+0 (+2.35%)

Apr 26

23
22 - 23

+0 (+1.41%)

Apr 27

23
23 - 24

+0 (+1.41%)

Apr 28

23
23 - 24

+0 (+1.41%)

Apr 29

24
23 - 24

+0 (+1.41%)

Apr 30

24
24 - 25

+0 (+1.41%)

May 1

24
24 - 25

+0 (+1.41%)

May 2

25
24 - 25

+0 (+1.41%)

May 3

25
25 - 26

+0 (+1.41%)

May 4

26
25 - 26

+0 (+1.41%)

What is the mortality rate in Lebanon?

Deaths by coronavirus versus statistical death rate

930000000100Apr 15Apr 24)}

In Lebanon, approx. 0.495% of the population die each year. With a population of roughly 6,850,000 people in Lebanon, that corresponds to about 93 deaths per day on the statistical average.

The graph above shows the reported daily deaths by coronavirus in contrast to the statistical number as baseline.

Coronavirus mortality rate with time-lag correction

3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.4%3.5%3.5%3.6%3.6%0 days14 days)}

To estimate the mortality rate of coronavirus infections, we need to consider that a reported death already showed up in the reported cases a few days before. It is presumed that this lag is between 7 and 14 days. If we assumed that the lag was about 7 days, the mortality rate in Lebanon would be approx. 3.3%.

The graph aboves shows the mortality depending on different presumed lag.

What was the daily increase in the last days in Lebanon?

Coronavirus infections

2.65%0.76%0.754%0.599%0.149%0.594%0%0.739%0.88%1.16%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph above shows the daily increase of reported coronavirus infections in Lebanon in the previous days.

Deaths by coronavirus

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%4.76%0%0%Apr 15Apr 24)}

The graph shows the daily increase of reported deaths by coronavirus in Lebanon in the previous days.

How could the occupation of intensive care beds in Lebanon develop?

High standardMedium standard1Apr 25

The graph tries to predict the number of required intensive care units in Lebanon. We assume the following:

  • The exponential trend of the past few days has continued and reported cases are active for around 12 days. 2% of active cases are so critical that an intensive care bed is required.
  • High standard: There are 30 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (2,050 total).
  • Medium standard: There are 15 intensive care beds per 100,000 inhabitants (1,030 total).

How can I protect myself and others?

The German Federal Ministry of Health recommends:

  • Keep the greatest possible distance when coughing or sneezing - it is best to turn away.
  • Sneeze into the crook of the arm or a handkerchief, which you can then dispose of.
  • Avoid touching when greeting other people and wash your hands regularly and thoroughly with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.

We do not guarantee the accuracy of the information.

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